Structural Flows Will Support Stocks Until the U.S. Treasury Crisis in 2027 | Cem Karsan & Noel Smith | Kai Asset Management
Show notes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Cem Karsan and Noel Smith, co-CIOs of Kai Asset Management, join OPM with Max Wiethe to dissect the volatility compression that is currently masking extreme dispersion across equity markets. Karsan explains why the current is one major catalyst away from a fat-tail Minsky moment, while Smith outlines the exact options strategies they are deploying to navigate the market's structural fragility. The duo also breaks down the macro shift toward populist, demand-side economics, predicting that structural inflation is here to stay and the value factor will crush growth investing in that environment. Finally, they reveal why an impending U.S. Treasury crisis will force the Federal Reserve to deploy massive quantitative easing, effectively bringing state-run intervention to U.S. equities to prevent a market collapse.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Post Midterms Volatility Break
04:20 Crash Risk and Fat Tails
09:52 Catalysts and Timing Window
12:30 Skew Explained and Carry Trade
15:14 AI Calls and Rotation Flows
18:09 Sarmaya LENS ETF
19:36 December OPEX Flow Pressure
27:40 Do You Need a Catalyst?
30:12 Index Calm but Violent Sector Rotation
35:58 Populism Will Drive the Value Factor
44:22 Why Rates Stay Higher
48:50 Treasury Crisis and QE
52:38 Partnership and Process
54:15 Options Structures and Catalysts
57:36 Three-Legged Market Stool
01:04:04 Conclusion