Moving Markets

by Julius Baer

NewThe View Beyond: Embracing complexity, unlocking alpha in value-driven private equityNovember 14, 2026 · 31 min

Episodes: 1,146
Released: daily
Latest episode: Nov 14, 2026

About the podcast

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

Episodes 1,146

The View Beyond: Embracing complexity, unlocking alpha in value-driven private equity
November 14, 202631 min
Can investors uncover opportunity where others see complexity? As higher interest rates and greater market uncertainty reshape the private equity landscape, disciplined investing, value creation, and a focus on …
Show notes
Can investors uncover opportunity where others see complexity? As higher interest rates and greater market uncertainty reshape the private equity landscape, disciplined investing, value creation, and a focus on realising and returning capital are becoming increasingly important drivers of returns.
In this episode, Bill Fong, Head of the Alternatives Specialists Team for Asia and the Middle East at Julius Baer, speaks with Matt Nord, Partner and Co-Head of Private Equity at Apollo Global Management. Together, they discuss Apollo's value-driven investment philosophy, drawing on examples of complex corporate carve-outs, take-private transactions, and business transformations to illustrate how value can be created throughout the investment lifecycle. They also explore the role of AI in enhancing operations, the importance of disciplined capital deployment and distributions, and the opportunities emerging across today's global private markets.
Note:
This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, product or service.
(00:00) - Introduction: Private equity in today’s market
(01:03) - How volatility creates opportunities
(01:40) - Finding value beyond market valuations
(08:21) - Identifying value in misunderstood businesses
(11:57) - Driving value through operations and scale
(17:22) - AI as a tool for operational improvement
(20:52) - The importance of capital returns and exit discipline
(27:15) - Emerging opportunities across global markets
Chapters (8)
Nvidia resignation rocks tech world as oil and yields surge
November 13, 202614 min
US technology stocks were in the spotlight yesterday following the sudden resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which prompted a broader sell-off in AI-linked shares even as competitors and hyperscalers …
Show notes
US technology stocks were in the spotlight yesterday following the sudden resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which prompted a broader sell-off in AI-linked shares even as competitors and hyperscalers attracted dip-buyers. Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher, while hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and surging inflation expectations drove Treasury yields back above 5% and lifted the dollar to its highest level since April 2025. European equities outperformed, touching record highs before closing slightly lower. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, shares his insights on gold, the US dollar, and the Brazilian real.
(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:00) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
(12:47) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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Chapters (4)
Will he stay or will he go?
November 12, 202610 min
Markets are firmly focused on one firm and one leader this morning as Nvidia’s board meets to decide the fate of Jensen Huang. After US markets ended higher yesterday and Europe’s Stoxx 600 notched its highest …
Show notes
Markets are firmly focused on one firm and one leader this morning as Nvidia’s board meets to decide the fate of Jensen Huang. After US markets ended higher yesterday and Europe’s Stoxx 600 notched its highest ever close, reports that Nvidia’s board might move to change their leader sent the company’s shares down 10% and futures markets tumbled too. Most of Asia traded lower today although Japan’s Topix provided a small green window. After bouncing back last week, precious metals have come under pressure again. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain what’s behind the latest moves, and what he expects in both the short and longer-term now.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(05:16) - Precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(09:23) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Anthropic's trillion-dollar ambition meets hot inflation & jumbo-hike fears
November 11, 202612 min
Stubborn US inflation has revived talk of a jumbo Fed rate hike, unsettling bonds and weighing on equities. Yet sentiment has rebounded, led by strong results from neocloud and semiconductor names, while …
Show notes
Stubborn US inflation has revived talk of a jumbo Fed rate hike, unsettling bonds and weighing on equities. Yet sentiment has rebounded, led by strong results from neocloud and semiconductor names, while Anthropic's potential USD 1.5 trillion debut underscores both the promise and the capital intensity of the artificial intelligence boom. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses whether a December jumbo hike is realistic and what higher-than-expected US inflation means for bond markets.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(06:26) - Bond Markets this week: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
(10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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(Almost) all of the headlines point to tech
November 10, 202613 min
Global equities staged a powerful comeback led by technology and semiconductors, even as an FBI investigation into Nvidia's CEO unfolded with all the intrigue of a James Bond plot. Broader market resilience …
Show notes
Global equities staged a powerful comeback led by technology and semiconductors, even as an FBI investigation into Nvidia's CEO unfolded with all the intrigue of a James Bond plot. Broader market resilience, Anthropic's bold IPO plans, sliding oil prices on easing geopolitical tensions, and today's crucial US inflation data round out a packed agenda for investors navigating elevated volatility. Enrico Chinello from our Next Generation Research team dives deeper into what has changed for the AI-buildout after the fallout from last week’s US midterm elections and what it means for investors going forward.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(07:05) - Making sense of the AI selloff: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
(12:25) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Markets digesting a momentous week
November 9, 202610 min
The Democrats' sweeping election victory sparked sharp market volatility last week, with an initial rally quickly giving way to a technology-led sell-off as investors reassessed the outlook for AI investment …
Show notes
The Democrats' sweeping election victory sparked sharp market volatility last week, with an initial rally quickly giving way to a technology-led sell-off as investors reassessed the outlook for AI investment and data centre expansion. Capital rotated into less AI-exposed markets, supporting Chinese and Indian equities while Europe held up relatively well. Beyond equities, oil prices recorded one of their steepest declines since 2020, while gold and the USD advanced. Asian markets are attempting a fragile rebound at the start of the week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, views last week's moves as a liquidation event: these have historically been followed by stronger market performance over the medium term.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:26) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(09:06) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: US midterms impact on Asian markets
November 7, 202615 min
The Democrats recorded a full sweep at the US midterms 2026. What does this mean for Asian markets, what can investors expect from the Federal Reserve going forward and will this also impact the oil price and …
Show notes
The Democrats recorded a full sweep at the US midterms 2026. What does this mean for Asian markets, what can investors expect from the Federal Reserve going forward and will this also impact the oil price and therefore the inflation picture?
In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, discusses with Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, why the outlook is rather optimistic for Asian markets, why both the US Dollar and oil price could potentially weaken going forward and to what extent the AI investment cycle remains important, but should be balanced out with defensive equity positions.
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:01) - Democrats' historic midterm sweep
(02:20) - Could a Democratic victory be good news for Asian markets?
(04:16) - Impact on trade policies and tariffs
(06:22) - Could markets be heading for a year-end rally?
(07:23) - Is a weaker US dollar on the horizon?
(08:33) - Is the AI spending race finally slowing down?
(10:44) - Positioning Asian equity portfolios for growth
(12:28) - Key risks investors should watch
(14:05) - Key takeaways
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Nasdaq correction creates panic selling
November 6, 202613 min
All three of the main US indices closed lower yesterday but it was AI-connected stocks that suffered the most and which sent the Nasdaq Composite 5.5% lower on the day. Following the Democratic sweep at the …
Show notes
All three of the main US indices closed lower yesterday but it was AI-connected stocks that suffered the most and which sent the Nasdaq Composite 5.5% lower on the day. Following the Democratic sweep at the midterms, investors are nervous about the possible impact on data centre development. The nerves were felt around the globe, with many European indices and nearly all of Asia’s closing lower yesterday and this morning. There were, however, a few exceptions. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely and insightful update on what is happening in both oil and natural gas markets on today’s podcast – tune in to find out why he believes that prices will trend lower in 2027.
(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(07:09) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
(12:20) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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Oil slides and equities rally on the blue wave
November 5, 202613 min
Global markets rallied after the Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, fuelling hopes of reduced policy uncertainty and easing geopolitical tensions. Oil prices …
Show notes
Global markets rallied after the Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, fuelling hopes of reduced policy uncertainty and easing geopolitical tensions. Oil prices plunged nearly 9% as investors bet on a faster resolution to the US-Iran conflict, while bond yields fell and equities surged on both sides of the Atlantic. However, technology stocks were mixed, with AI platform giants advancing, while semiconductor and data centre shares came under pressure. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s show to talk about the impact of the Democratic sweep on currencies and metals.

(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(06:36) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
(11:44) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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What now for equities and bonds after the blue wave?
November 4, 202614 min
Markets initially sold off after the Democratic blue wave in the US midterms, but much of the decline in equities, bond yields and the dollar quickly reversed. AI sentiment remained resilient, with AMD raising …
Show notes
Markets initially sold off after the Democratic blue wave in the US midterms, but much of the decline in equities, bond yields and the dollar quickly reversed. AI sentiment remained resilient, with AMD raising guidance and Meta attracting strong demand for its USD 15 billion bond issue. Gold climbed above USD 4,000 per ounce while Asian markets rebounded despite softer Chinese services data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, sees political gridlock as supportive for US Treasuries and highlights attractive value in high-quality intermediate-duration bonds. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, believes policy uncertainty around regulation, taxation and AI spending could weigh on US stocks, supporting the case for international diversification.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(05:27) - Bond Market reaction to US midterm elections: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
(09:43) - Equities in the wake of midterms: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(13:09) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Oil plunges, tech under pressure
November 3, 202613 min
A dramatic drop in oil prices set the tone for global markets yesterday, as investors reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. Lower energy prices boosted European equities and particularly travel …
Show notes
A dramatic drop in oil prices set the tone for global markets yesterday, as investors reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. Lower energy prices boosted European equities and particularly travel and leisure stocks, but concerns surrounding the AI trade continued to drag on US technology names. China's yuan is set for its biggest one-day drop against the dollar for six months today, after the central bank said it would raise the amount of foreign currency that financial institutions have to set aside as reserves. The US midterm elections dominate the political agenda today, with polls suggesting that the Democrats are favoured to win the House, but the Senate will be a close call. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the show to talk about cybersecurity after the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, was hacked last week.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(07:04) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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US equity markets sneezed on Friday but Asia hasn’t caught the cold
November 2, 202611 min
The last trading day of October saw the rotation trade continue with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 falling more than the blue-chip Dow Jones, which was also the only one of the three indices to end the month …
Show notes
The last trading day of October saw the rotation trade continue with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 falling more than the blue-chip Dow Jones, which was also the only one of the three indices to end the month higher than it began it. Asian markets - with the exception of Japan - have rallied at the start of this week, and there has been good news in China, signalling that authorities have renewed their efforts to halt a slump. In a week where investors might become distracted by US politics, Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, delves into the mechanics of the US equity sell-off to untangle the moves in the IT and Communications sectors, and what they might mean for investors
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(07:23) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: Will the French fallout spread?
October 31, 202618 min
Unrest in France has escalated from student protests to broader concerns about public finances and long-term growth, putting French assets under pressure and raising questions about potential contagion across …
Show notes
Unrest in France has escalated from student protests to broader concerns about public finances and long-term growth, putting French assets under pressure and raising questions about potential contagion across Europe. Investors are now assessing which sectors and asset classes are most exposed and whether the turmoil could trigger wider instability.
In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Nenad Dinic, European Equity Strategist at Julius Baer, to analyse the drivers behind the French protests, the implications for French government bonds and equities, and the likelihood of spillover into other European markets. The discussion covers sector-specific risks, the impact of fiscal policy and political uncertainty, and what it would take for sentiment to improve. The episode concludes with reflections on the latest European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde’s resignation.
(01:08) - What’s driving the French protests and why markets are reacting
(02:24) - Investor concerns: French government bonds and equities
(04:40) - Risk of contagion to other European assets
(06:07) - What rising French bond yields signal for investors
(07:32) - Which sectors and companies are most exposed?
(10:06) - Why have French equities underperformed?
(11:10) - Are there opportunities after the French equity sell-off?
(12:56) - What needs to change to improve France’s fiscal situation
(15:37) - ECB meeting takeaways and Christine Lagarde’s resignation
(17:35) - Closing remarks
(18:02) - Legal information

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A surprise exit, sinking tech, and a flight to safety
October 30, 202612 min
Markets are digesting a major ECB surprise as Christine Lagarde announces her early departure while keeping the door open to another rate hike. Meanwhile, investors are rotating out of technology despite …
Show notes
Markets are digesting a major ECB surprise as Christine Lagarde announces her early departure while keeping the door open to another rate hike. Meanwhile, investors are rotating out of technology despite resilient US growth, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel all under pressure. We also discuss the risk-off mood sweeping Asia, the Bank of Japan's milestone inflation declaration, and the largest crypto hack on record. Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Advisory Geneva, joins us to discuss the euro, the sell-off in precious metals and the sharp move in the Brazilian real following the surprise election outcome.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:01) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Advisory Geneva
(11:30) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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AI earnings upset the applecart
October 29, 202612 min
Chip stocks lifted US stock markets, helping them to close higher on Wednesday, but Alphabet and Samsung's earnings have since dampened investors' enthusiasm. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points …
Show notes
Chip stocks lifted US stock markets, helping them to close higher on Wednesday, but Alphabet and Samsung's earnings have since dampened investors' enthusiasm. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points whilst the Fed stayed on hold. Today it's Europe's turn and the ECB is also expected to keep its powder dry. Gold dipped below the magic USD 4,000 per ounce this week and silver has fallen too. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into what might be behind the moves, and shares his views on the longer-term outlook for both precious metals.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:44) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:16) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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AI optimism returns as central banks and hyperscalers take centre stage
October 28, 202614 min
Anthropic’s IPO filing has reignited enthusiasm for the technology and semiconductor sectors, providing fresh momentum for the broader AI ecosystem ahead of earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet after …
Show notes
Anthropic’s IPO filing has reignited enthusiasm for the technology and semiconductor sectors, providing fresh momentum for the broader AI ecosystem ahead of earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet after the US market close today. Meanwhile, government bond yields are edging higher this morning as investors remain cautious ahead of policy meetings from the world's three major central banks in the coming days. In today’s episode, we are joined by Eirini Tsekeridou from Fixed Income Research and Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy Research. They discuss what investors can expect from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s fourth term in office and the key themes to watch as the European earnings season gathers pace, respectively.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(06:29) - Brazilian bonds: Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research
(09:34) - European earnings season: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research
(13:04) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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AI sparks a market rebound
October 27, 202612 min
Global equities rallied as optimism around artificial intelligence returned to the market, with Anthropic's IPO filing helping to revive sentiment toward the sector. Also, Meta announced massive fundraising …
Show notes
Global equities rallied as optimism around artificial intelligence returned to the market, with Anthropic's IPO filing helping to revive sentiment toward the sector. Also, Meta announced massive fundraising plans. A circuit breaker was triggered in Brazil as stock markets plunged after the surprise re-election of President Lula da Silva. Today, Asian markets are mixed but South Korea's KOSPI gained on the revival of the AI trade. The Fed begins its latest policy meeting in what is a crucial week for central bank meetings and earnings. Dr. Damien Ng joins the podcast today to discuss wearables and how they are evolving into a tool to help people make better decisions about their health.
(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(07:17) - Wearables; from fitness tracking to healthcare infrastructure: Dr. Damien Ng, Next Generation
(11:15) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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AI doubts, oil fears and a defining week ahead
October 26, 202611 min
Markets are pulling investors in several directions at once. Strong US economic data is colliding with growing questions over AI spending, while French bond markets have seen historic moves and Middle East …
Show notes
Markets are pulling investors in several directions at once. Strong US economic data is colliding with growing questions over AI spending, while French bond markets have seen historic moves and Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices sharply higher. In Brazil, Lula's surprise election victory is a market earthquake. It promises to be a critical week, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all set to meet, while companies including Alphabet, Eli Lilly and BP provide fresh guidance. We also hear from Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, on the recent underperformance of technology stocks and what to look out for in gold after last week's decline.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
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The View Beyond: What's really driving markets?
October 24, 202622 min
Despite a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, and rapid technological change, capital markets have shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of deeper disruption …
Show notes
Despite a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, and rapid technological change, capital markets have shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of deeper disruption. What’s behind this strength, and how should investors position for what's next?
In this episode, Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Marko Radovic, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Alternatives at Julius Baer, join Helen Freer to discuss the major themes shaping financial markets today. They reflect on the biggest surprises of the year, the outlook for broadening market performance, and where investors can find opportunities to diversify their exposure. The conversation also explores the implications of the upcoming US midterm elections, the role of private markets in portfolio construction, and the key forces driving markets today.
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:52) - The biggest surprises for financial markets so far this year
(03:07) - Has equity market performance broadened?
(05:30) - The challenge for stockpickers
(07:15) - Where to diversify: Europe, Asia, and beyond
(09:40) - Positioning for the US midterm elections and volatility
(13:24) - The rising importance of private markets
(17:12) - The single most important theme driving markets
(20:45) - Closing remarks and legal information

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Tech turmoil and China’s market test
October 23, 202613 min
Meta Platforms sparked a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex after reporting its first cash outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, government bonds rallied, pushing the 10-year US …
Show notes
Meta Platforms sparked a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex after reporting its first cash outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, government bonds rallied, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield back below 5%. Meanwhile, pressure on French assets intensified, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widening towards 180 basis points. In today’s Moving Markets episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, joins us to discuss the outlook for Chinese equities after major indices slipped into bear-market territory.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(07:17) - Chinese equity sell-off: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
(12:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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What a difference a day makes
October 22, 202613 min
On Wednesday equity markets across Europe rallied on the back of strong earnings announcements with even France’s CAC 40 gaining more than 1% on the day. Nervousness in French bonds markets continues though …
Show notes
On Wednesday equity markets across Europe rallied on the back of strong earnings announcements with even France’s CAC 40 gaining more than 1% on the day. Nervousness in French bonds markets continues though, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 5% for the first time since 2002. The positive tone was echoed in the US where indices also closed higher and earnings again broadly satisfied. However, after the close the mood changed as Tesla’s earnings disappointed and geopolitical tensions saw Brent oil rise above USD 110 per barrel. Asian equity markets have sold off this morning with China’s CSI 300 heading into bear market territory. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today for a timely look at why oil is trading at such unjustified levels, as well as sharing why he believes that the direction for both oil and gas prices should be down.
(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:46) - Energy – Oil, European natural gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
(11:56) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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Oil swings, markets broaden, SpaceX soars
October 21, 202619 min
Oil volatility, a broadening equity rally and earnings dominated markets yesterday. While Netflix disappointed, SpaceX delivered standout results and Elon Musk floated the idea of a potential tie-up with Tesla …
Show notes
Oil volatility, a broadening equity rally and earnings dominated markets yesterday. While Netflix disappointed, SpaceX delivered standout results and Elon Musk floated the idea of a potential tie-up with Tesla. In Asia, stronger semiconductor sentiment and robust Japanese export growth supported risk appetite, offsetting weakness in CATL, China’s top battery maker, following its earnings release. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, examine Europe as France's debt concerns deepen, European bank stocks central to Italy’s and Spain’s stock markets hit a four-month low, and Swiss large caps have been outperforming.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:03) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(11:52) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(17:42) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Markets diverge as France rattles Europe and AI rebounds
October 20, 202614 min
US technology stocks bounced back on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, while political unrest in France weighed heavily on European markets, French bonds, and the euro. Oil prices swung on escalating …
Show notes
US technology stocks bounced back on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, while political unrest in France weighed heavily on European markets, French bonds, and the euro. Oil prices swung on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and investors continued to assess the implications of higher interest rates, AI investment spending, and upcoming earnings. In today's show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses last week's weakness in AI-related stocks, explains why we remain constructive on the long-term AI opportunity, and highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:12) - The state of artificial intelligence: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
(13:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Flying cars and falling chips
October 19, 202611 min
The Nasdaq just posted its worst week since Liberation Day amid growing doubts over AI momentum. Capital rotated into bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest weekly decline since …
Show notes
The Nasdaq just posted its worst week since Liberation Day amid growing doubts over AI momentum. Capital rotated into bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest weekly decline since February, despite firm inflation data. Meanwhile, the ongoing earnings season looks set to test market sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the medium- to long-term outlook for the technology sector is still positive, and what it would take for this to change.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
(10:12) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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The View Beyond: China's post-Golden Week reality check
October 17, 202624 min
China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook …
Show notes
China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.
Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on market sentiment, economic recovery and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities in China over the next 6 months.
(00:28) - What options do policymakers have following weaker Golden Week data?
(03:51) - Property stimulus and growth outlook
(09:30) - China's rapid advancements in technological innovation
(13:40) - Tightening trade restrictions - what's the impact?
(18:07) - Are investors being overly pessimistic?
(21:04) - Sectors to watch in the next 6 months
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Equities up, bond prices up, Fed hike expectations down
October 16, 202612 min
European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same …
Show notes
European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
(10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Hot US inflation, AI under pressure and iron ore's price divide
October 15, 202613 min
Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 …
Show notes
Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world.
(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
(00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
(07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
(11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Fed hopes, AI fears, and banks that fail to impress
October 14, 202615 min
Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over …
Show notes
Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
(10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
(14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitics drive markets while AI faces new challenges
October 13, 202613 min
Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central …
Show notes
Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.
(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
(00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
(07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
(12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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SpaceX shocks telecoms, oil defies geopolitics, and earnings season begins
October 12, 202611 min
Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US …
Show notes
Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals.
(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
(01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
(07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis
(10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

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