The Allan Gray Podcast

At the end of 2025, the estimated size of South Africa’s savings pool stood at a substantial R15.8 trillion, yet the country continues to face a significant infrastructure investment shortfall. Some policymakers might view this dichotomy as evidence that Regulation 28, which governs how retirement funds may invest, should be adjusted to lower the offshore allowance and direct more savings towards local infrastructure.

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis, economist Sandy McGregor and ESG analyst Raine Adams argue that SA’s infrastructure underinvestment is not the result of a shortage of money, but the shortage of opportunity. The private sector continues to show a willingness to fund viable projects. They point to the roughly R350bn of capital that has been invested in the local Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme projects since 2022 – the same year that the offshore allowance was in fact increased.

The discussion underscores that addressing the country’s infrastructure investment shortfall is less about changing Regulation 28 and more about making progress on the reform agenda, instituting sensible public policies, raising governance standards and increasing the number of opportunities worth investing in. Allan Gray website · Changing Regulation 28: A solution looking for a problem

Successful investing is often associated with making perfect decisions, yet even the most accomplished investors can be wrong from time to time. Long-term investment outcomes are driven less by perfection and more by ensuring that the best ideas are backed with conviction and time to influence long-term returns.

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, Mica Townsend, an investment specialist in our ManCo Distribution team, is joined by Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker to discuss how position sizing shapes investment outcomes. Drawing on reflections across a range of our portfolio holdings, from AB InBev and Investec to Naspers and Prosus, they explore why managing downside risk, allocating capital to the most promising ideas and disciplined decision-making may matter more than achieving a perfect hit rate. Allan Gray website

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way investors access information and make decisions, yet the forces that drive markets remain remarkably familiar. In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, Allan Gray Institutional Clients manager Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy and Simon Skinner, director and head of Orbis’ Global Investment team, discuss the impact of AI on investing and market behaviour, the risks of false certainty and the enduring value of independent thinking. Allan Gray website · Investing through disruption: Lessons from history for the age of AI

Finding long-term compounders can feel a little like searching for a needle in a haystack. While a small number of businesses generate a disproportionate share of long-term equity market returns, identifying them is far more difficult than it appears in hindsight. In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Siphesihle Zwane, Jithen Pillay and Pieter Koornhof discuss how Allan Gray searches for businesses with the potential to compound value over long periods of time. They explore why a great business is not always a great investment, what characteristics underpin enduring businesses, and why some of the best buying opportunities emerge during periods of uncertainty. Allan Gray website · Diamonds in the rough: A look at luxury

In an environment defined by ongoing change, investors may be tempted to reduce uncertainty by trying to predict what lies ahead. However, as forecasts are seldom accurate, investors may be better served by accepting that uncertainty is inherent and by preparing for a world that will continue to surprise.

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, Marise Bester, a manager in the ManCo Distribution team, hosts Allan Gray portfolio managers Varshan Maharaj and Kamal Govan to discuss the factors currently shaping markets and influencing investment decisions. They cover a broad range of themes, from the disconnect between South Africa’s sluggish economy and its strong market performance to how interest rates and inflation influence global markets. They also explore the underlying drivers of AI-related capital flows and delve into our approach to offshore allocation. Allan Gray website · Beyond the narratives: Investing through uncertainty · Lessons from the markets and the sea: Don’t get caught in the undertow

Global markets are navigating a challenging mix of persistent conflict, energy insecurity and volatile inflation, stoking fear among investors. In frontier and smaller emerging markets, that fear weighs heavily on asset prices, often sending them well below what the underlying business fundamentals suggest.

Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy, a manager in the Institutional Clients team, is joined by portfolio managers Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and Varshan Maharaj to explore opportunities in unloved or overlooked markets amid uncertainty. Using some examples from the Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund’s investment universe, they discuss the distinction between structural and cyclical risk, how deep fundamental research can uncover high-quality businesses hidden in plain sight, and where patient long-term investors may be rewarded for leaning into risk when fear dominates asset prices. Frontier Markets Equity Fund: Focusing on value amid market volatility · Allan Gray website

Last year’s strong market returns renewed optimism in South Africa after years of sluggish growth, but many investors are wondering whether the country has truly reached a turning point or is merely in the midst of a false dawn. Allan Gray portfolio managers Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor are joined by ESG analyst Raine Adams to discuss whether the country’s reform narrative is on track. They also explore the structural factors shaping the economic environment, including energy, water and logistics, and share views on whether local asset prices can withstand global shocks. Tipping point or false dawn? South Africa’s defining question · Allan Gray website

For many investors, 2025 intensified the behavioural pressures that shape investment decisions. Markets reached record highs, even as global growth slowed and political tides turned across major economies. Amid these contrasts, investors and advisers were reminded just how crucial it is to manage behaviour. Falling prey to inherent behavioural biases and knee-jerk reactions when markets shift are well-known ways to hinder performance and erode returns. In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker, leading behavioural finance expert and author Dr Daniel Crosby explores habits and hacks that personal and professional investors can employ to navigate volatile markets, avoid cognitive traps and enhance their long-term investment success. Allan Gray website · Why behaviour shapes long-term investment success more than performance

Is perfectionism costing us more than we realise in mental health, life and investment decision-making? Our head of Group Savings and Investments, Shaheed Mohamed, and Dr Thomas Curran, a leading academic on perfectionism and bestselling author, explore how striving for perfection can undermine long-term outcomes. Their conversation ranges from burnout and analysis paralysis to the hidden cost of chasing short-term gains. They also delve into the difference between perfection and excellence, the role of behavioural bias in investing, and the value of cultivating self-compassion and working towards realistic goals. Allan Gray website

While what worked for the last 40 years of investing may not work for the next 40, history offers valuable lessons for the path ahead. Chief investment officer Duncan Artus and renowned author and publisher Grant Williams unpick past events and explore future opportunities. From Japan’s decades-long battle with deflation and the unique opportunities in its bond market to the rise of gold as a counterweight to fiat currency, they reflect on market cycles across regions and eras. The conversation spans geopolitics and power, inflation, disruptor industries and the slow pivot from virtual to virtuous value. ·

Shifting consumer patterns and behaviour. Disruptive innovations. Generational changes. These are not simply headlines; they are real challenges being navigated by investors. However, that is not all they are. They are also opportunity creators for investors who have done their homework and are deeply focused on fundamentals. Allan Gray portfolio managers Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Jithen Pillay and Siphesihle Zwane delve into British American Tobacco, AB InBev and Disney – three large, long-standing businesses that have managed to reinvent themselves despite existing within rapidly evolving industries, experiencing major changes in their core economics and having made major acquisitions in recent times.

Global investors have been on a rollercoaster ride in the wake of President Trump’s announcement of an array of reciprocal tariffs which rocked global stock markets, initially sending US shares tumbling and then rebounding as investors hung onto news headlines as a key determinant of prices. But prices shouldn’t be confused with value, and the extreme volatility serves as a stark reminder to investors that paying a premium for optimism is dangerous and hefty price tags should be interrogated. In a wide-ranging conversation, Institutional Clients manager Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy and Rob Perrone, a senior investment specialist at our offshore partner, Orbis, explore the current global investment universe, explain why “great expectations” appear to be baked into markets and discuss many of the compelling opportunities in less popular markets. Orbis Global Balanced: Defensively positioned to deliver long-term returns · The conflict between price and fundamentals

South African listed property has shifted from being a leading wealth creator in the early 2000s to one of the weakest performers over the past decade on the back of sluggish economic growth, ongoing infrastructure challenges and the impact of COVID-19 on retail and office space demand. Over the last year, the sector has shown signs of recovery. Is it time to cement the opportunity, or should it be approached with caution? In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Siphesihle Zwane, investment analysts Ghiete van Zyl and Umar-Farooq Kagee explore how we apply our long-term investment approach when considering opportunities in listed property. They also unpack the distinctive features of this asset class and explain the fundamental drivers of the sector’s longer-term prospects. Allan Gray website

The US has dominated global news flow in the wake of the presidential election, and market-moving headlines continue to present the temptation to act on impulse. As investors who focus on the fundamentals, the “great election year” has challenged Allan Gray and our offshore partner, Orbis, to continue to filter the signals from the noise to identify compelling long-term opportunities. In this episode, portfolio manager Tim Acker is joined by Orbis portfolio manager Ben Preston. They touch on the impact of the US election on the markets, delve into how Orbis is exploring potential in the Korean market and biopharmaceuticals, and reveal enhancements to Orbis’ investment process. Allan Gray website

Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets. The ANC’s drastic decline at the polls and the formation of a government of national unity have been of keen interest to investors in SA Inc. Abroad, we have seen Labour take the lead by a landslide in the UK general election and the US presidential race heat up as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump increase their efforts to return to the White House. In this conversation, portfolio managers Thalia Petousis and Sean Munsie join Product Development manager Vuyo Mroxiso to explore the impact of the great election year on financial markets and explain how political change is reshaping the opportunity set for long-term investors. Allan Gray | Unit Trusts · Introducing the Allan Gray Interest Fund and the Allan Gray Income Fund

When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. James Aitken, the founder of Aitken Advisors, has spent three decades gaining a deep understanding of the global financial system’s plumbing. He has carefully studied markets and investors to identify the subtle differences that can help us become “a little less wrong” and produce meaningfully better outcomes over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, James shares the key things investors need to keep in mind as they traverse global markets. Allan Gray website · More insights from Allan Gray · 50 years of creating long-term wealth for our clients

Buoyed by the ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence, the so-called “magnificent seven” (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, Nvidia and Tesla) have been able to count themselves among this year’s biggest winners. And it is easy to understand why: They are great businesses at the forefront of the latest tech developments, and they are expected to deliver exceptional growth. That said, history reminds us that it is exceptionally hard to exceed high expectations over the long term – particularly when they are already baked into a company’s share price.

In conversation with Tamryn Lamb, Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker and Graeme Forster, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis, explain why we share the belief that good, undervalued businesses with fewer hurdles to overcome remain the best bet for long-term investors. They also delve into some of their favourite global investment ideas. Orbis Global Equity: Value in a changing Japan · Local investment update: Balancing caution and optimism