Adrian Morris on AI, $ASST, $MSTR and $SATS
Show notes
Jody and Avi sit down with Adrian Morris of True North, who wrote the long research paper on Strategy's Stretch buybacks. He compares Strive's new SATS preferred (15% fixed) with Stretch, explains why his modeling found the Stretch buybacks indistinct from zero on price, and why he doesn't see MSTR common stock buybacks moving the needle either.
Then the AI question: whether AI capex and raises like Nebius are pulling capital out of bitcoin (his take is that expectations are the real risk, not a rotation), what Metaplanet needs to win back retail trust, why converts come back once bitcoin is much bigger, Vivek Ramaswamy's idea of putting part of Ohio's pensions in bitcoin, and a future where bitcoin sits at $500K and no one blinks. They close on Q4, Adrian's case that AI is about 98.5% of the way to AGI and only needs to be a genius, not a god machine, and rising above AI slop.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:14 Cold open
0:41 Welcome: Adrian Morris of True North joins
1:29 Strive's new $SATS preferred vs Strategy's Stretch
5:02 Why $MSTR common stock buybacks won't move the price
10:35 Is AI draining capital from Bitcoin? (Nebius raise)
14:49 Stretch buybacks: indistinct from zero
16:47 Metaplanet and winning back retail trust
19:30 Adapt, don't react: Saylor and retail on X
21:42 Converts are coming back
25:49 Midterms, Vivek and Ohio pensions
30:49 What moves the needle for the next 10 million Bitcoiners
33:59 Bitcoin at $500K and no one blinks
35:25 Q4 outlook: SpaceX, AI capex and Bloom Energy
41:56 How most people will actually use AI
49:53 AI is 98.5% of the way to AGI
51:29 We need a genius, not a god machine
54:24 Rising above the AI slop and wrap-up
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