Monday - November 2, 2026
Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4A5IXRo
David recaps a volatile market session in which the Dow finished up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed to close lower, extending October’s sharp rotation and market broadening as mega-cap AI/tech names fell while most stocks and sectors rose. He highlights big declines in Nvidia, Meta, and Google, Intel’s steep drop, and OpenAI raising less than targeted at a lower valuation as potentially important for AI financing and broader credit narratives, pushing back on claims the S&P is now “cheap.” He notes the 10-year yield falling to 4.91%, oil dropping 8% (with energy still the top 5-year gainer), a major $6.3B Binance hack, and Fitch reporting a 6.3% private credit default rate. He previews election-focused investor implications, reviews GDP/ISM and housing/rent data, discusses shifting December hike odds and the Fed’s sensitivity to financial conditions, and explains why today’s CDS risks differ from 2008. Upcoming: Apple earnings, heavy reporting week, and Friday jobs report.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
00:52 Market Reversal and Rotation
02:59 Mag Seven Drag Explained
04:22 AI Funding and Valuation Risks
07:18 Rates Sectors and Energy Surprise
08:48 Crypto Hack and Private Credit Check
10:31 Election Preview and Investor Webinar
12:11 GDP ISM Housing and Fed Outlook
16:28 Oil Midstream and Earnings Week
16:52 Ask TBG CDS and Systemic Risk
20:27 Week Ahead and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com