Monday - October 5, 2026
Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe
The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments.
00:00 Midday Recording Setup
01:24 Earnings Season Expectations
02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff
03:58 AI Task Force Policy
05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook
06:35 Weak Jobs Report
07:29 Rates Inflation Signals
08:28 Energy Midstream Notes
08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com