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Will Prediction Markets Come to ETFs?

April 9, 2026 · 32 min

Show notes

Just when it feels like ETFs have done it all, along comes some filings that push the frontier. A trio of issuers wants to launch funds tied to prediction markets -- letting investors wager, from their brokerage accounts, on outcomes like which political party will control the White House or Congress. But how would these ETFs actually work? What else might get packaged this way? And will regulators ever sign off?

On this episode of Trillions, Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber interview Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise and one of the filers, about why prediction market ETFs might make sense, how they’d work, and whether this is the start of a much bigger wave of event-based ETF investing.

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