
Forward Guidance
- Episodios
- 636
- Se publica
- varias veces por semana
- Último episodio
- 6 Nov 2026
Sobre el podcast
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodios 636
Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup
Is the AI trade officially dead and where can investors hide while we wait and see? This week, we’re joined by Tony Greer to unpack the semiconductor selloff and the trades taking shape into year end. We also …
Notas del episodio
Is the AI trade officially dead and where can investors hide while we wait and see?
This week, we’re joined by Tony Greer to unpack the semiconductor selloff and the trades taking shape into year end.
We also discuss gold’s resilience, a potential bond bottom, the Fed’s next move, and why homebuilders deserve attention. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Tony Shows Up, Markets Fall Apart
04:29 Did The Midterms Break The Market?
07:48 The Trades Working Right Now
12:24 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London
14:05 Is 2018 Happening Again?
17:38 The AI Bubble Starts Bursting
21:20 Can Gold And Bitcoin Survive?
24:53 Is A Liquidation Cascade Coming?
27:45 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London
29:33 Can The Fed Really Hike?
32:12 The AI IPO Frenzy Unravels
37:34 The Best Trades Into Year-End
39:56 How To Trade A Moving Market
FOLLOW
› Tony – https://x.com/TgMacro
› TG Macro Conference – https://tgmacro.com/conference/
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
TOOLS
› Blockworks MCP: Our data, your agents
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-mcp-our-data-your-agents
› Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
› Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Is The AI Selloff A Buying Opportunity? | Warren Pies
Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath? This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to …
Notas del episodio
Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath?
This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to run.
We also explore financials vs. staples flashing caution, why Fed hikes are the biggest risk to AI, and how the Iran blockade and diesel cracks are reshaping oil. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research
04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution
08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets
12:32 Fidelity, DAS London
13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact?
20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out?
26:18 Fidelity, DAS London
27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom
32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds
35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race?
37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy?
39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil
44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape
48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks?
FOLLOW WARREN
› Warren – https://x.com/WarrenPies
› 3Fourteen – https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
RESOURCES
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup
The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help. This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end. We explore gold …
Notas del episodio
The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help.
This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end.
We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Brewers Win the World Series
02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents
08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike
12:46 Fidelity / DAS London
13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900
19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing?
29:29 Fidelity / DAS London
30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI
39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply
44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest
51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election
53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack
57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup
Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained? This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story. We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI …
Notas del episodio
Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?
This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.
We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two
01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%
02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up
05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case
09:45 Reading The Oil Curve
12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs
16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries
20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through
23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions
29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan
36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices
39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?
44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?
54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore …
Notas del episodio
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?
This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market.
We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge?
07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains?
10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital
16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market
23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin
26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity?
FOLLOW GUESTS
› Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x
› Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc
› Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
RESOURCES
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and …
Notas del episodio
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?
This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.
We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation?
07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October?
11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine
16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming?
21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot
26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts?
32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter?
40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work?
44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety?
49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
http://fidelity.com/crypto
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of …
Notas del episodio
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?
This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.
We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain
04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?
06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream
09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps
13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right?
15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance
18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned
FOLLOW GUESTS
› Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat
› Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
› DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS
RESOURCES
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide …
Notas del episodio
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?
This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.
We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?
08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks
14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?
19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act
22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?
29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher
33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?
38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt
43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma
48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something …
Notas del episodio
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.
This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.
We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising
07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?
11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?
16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?
19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade
23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?
26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over
29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?
35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?
39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?
44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?
50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks
53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?
58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s …
Notas del episodio
What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?
This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.
We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?
08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading
13:11 The Return Of Stagflation
21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?
25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?
32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation
35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?
48:45 The European Debasement Trade
59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?
01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt
Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock …
Notas del episodio
Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.
This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.
We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed
10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?
18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit)
20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again?
27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive
35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free?
39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?
42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge?
47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets?
53:22 Closing Thoughts
FOLLOW GUEST
› X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt
› LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/
› Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/
› Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
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› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming …
Notas del episodio
Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.
This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.
We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?
06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?
11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap
18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)
20:05 Will The Fed Hike?
26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?
30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?
33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?
37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?
43:22 Final Thoughts
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber
The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the …
Notas del episodio
The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?
This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.
We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?
10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance
12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again?
18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold
23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive
27:56 The Opportunity In Silver
29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin?
32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries?
36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem?
41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy?
FOLLOW GUESTS
› Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
› Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise
› Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
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› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals …
Notas del episodio
The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.
This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.
We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent
05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?
08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed
13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks?
16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement
19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit)
21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma
27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem
30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble
37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook
42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI?
47:03 The Debasement Endgame
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.
Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST
› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in …
Notas del episodio
Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.
This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.
We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game
12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?
19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?
24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?
29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?
33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?
37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?
41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?
46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom?
51:58 Final Thoughts
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different …
Notas del episodio
Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.
We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime
06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder
14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market
20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope
29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing?
37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold
43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible
FOLLOW DARIUS
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42
› 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
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› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to …
Notas del episodio
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.
This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.
We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:58 Tyler's Farewell
04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime
06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility
15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle?
20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade
24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?
28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot
33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft
40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms?
44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat
46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase
50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows
55:34 Final Thoughts
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily …
Notas del episodio
Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.
This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.
We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:01 The Awesome Portfolio
04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk
11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift
14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data
17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting
20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight
22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun
27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold
FOLLOW JARED
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap
› Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ
FOLLOW THE SHOW
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› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether …
Notas del episodio
AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.
This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.
We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation
04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom
07:51 Price Drives The Narrative
12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?
21:08 Why The Long End Matters
25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem
29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?
33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection
38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics
45:46 August Slowdown Risks
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou
AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to …
Notas del episodio
AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.
Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.
We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging
06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows
14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency
18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?
22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand
27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening
32:03 The Memory Bottleneck
37:07 AI’s Next Phase
FOLLOW STEVE
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou
› Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We …
Notas del episodio
The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.
This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.
We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels
06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets
12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?
16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade
19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze
23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure
29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?
35:29 Can Value Finally Win?
40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk
48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly
Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how …
Notas del episodio
Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.
This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.
We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:00 Trading Outside The Box
06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk
12:46 AI As A Trading Tool
19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets
25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed
33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook
41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?
43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?
FOLLOW BRENT
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent
› Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/
› Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market …
Notas del episodio
Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.
This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.
We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack
07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?
10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?
12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive
14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report
18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?
24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?
27:54 How We're Trading This
32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?
38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech
40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto
44:17 July 4th And The World Cup
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan
Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors …
Notas del episodio
Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.
This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.
We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:04 Bob's Macro Background
09:21 Data-Driven Macro
13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead
16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility
21:13 Why Data Matters Even More
25:35 The Two Trades In Rates
33:16 Balance Sheet Games
37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop
43:32 Final Thoughts
FOLLOW BOB
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro
› Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup
The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the …
Notas del episodio
The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.
This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.
We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:16 FIFA World Cup
04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading
09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation
12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky
14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx
19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates
25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall
29:38 Passive Investing Cracking?
33:37 Market Leadership Rotating
42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle?
44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality
50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power
55:26 Do Things IRL
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly? This week, we …
Notas del episodio
A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?
This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.
We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead
08:28 Rate Volatility Returns
13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen
18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight
26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed
35:55 The Summer Market Setup
42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test
46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost
53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt
01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang
A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision. Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s …
Notas del episodio
A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.
Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.
We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance
05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed
11:19 The New Fed Task Forces
17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility
19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight
23:13 Rethinking Fed Data
27:46 Weighing AI Productivity
31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target
36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal
FOLLOW JOSEPH
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang
› Website – https://fedguy.com/
› YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Blockworks Acquires Messari
In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement …
Notas del episodio
In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.
Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks
Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto
Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today. This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic …
Notas del episodio
Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.
This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.
We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook
08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap
12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds
17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed
21:48 Mag Loses Leadership
28:54 The AI Capex Risk
30:17 The Best Rates Trade
34:20 Policy Powers The AI War
38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?
43:52 The AI Access Divide
50:34 The Centralization Trade
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide. Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to …
Notas del episodio
A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.
Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.
We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test
04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role
11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?
14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak
17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix
23:30 What's The Policy Plan?
27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game
34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global
40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold
47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing
FOLLOW LUKE
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen
› FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Aquí están los 40 episodios más recientes de 636. Los anteriores están en el feed del podcast.
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