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Forward Guidance
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Forward Guidance

NeuLong Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup06.11.2026 · 48 Min.
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636
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mehrmals pro Woche
Letzte Folge
6. Nov. 2026

Über den Podcast

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Folgen 636

  1. Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup

    48 Min.

    Is the AI trade officially dead and where can investors hide while we wait and see? This week, we’re joined by Tony Greer to unpack the semiconductor selloff and the trades taking shape into year end. We also …

    Shownotes

    Is the AI trade officially dead and where can investors hide while we wait and see?


    This week, we’re joined by Tony Greer to unpack the semiconductor selloff and the trades taking shape into year end.


    We also discuss gold’s resilience, a potential bond bottom, the Fed’s next move, and why homebuilders deserve attention. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Tony Shows Up, Markets Fall Apart

    04:29 Did The Midterms Break The Market?

    07:48 The Trades Working Right Now

    12:24 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London

    14:05 Is 2018 Happening Again?

    17:38 The AI Bubble Starts Bursting

    21:20 Can Gold And Bitcoin Survive?

    24:53 Is A Liquidation Cascade Coming?

    27:45 Fidelity, Blockworks MCP, DAS London

    29:33 Can The Fed Really Hike?

    32:12 The AI IPO Frenzy Unravels

    37:34 The Best Trades Into Year-End

    39:56 How To Trade A Moving Market


    FOLLOW

    › Tony – https://x.com/TgMacro

    › TG Macro Conference – https://tgmacro.com/conference/

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    TOOLS

    › Blockworks MCP: Our data, your agents

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-mcp-our-data-your-agents


    › Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    › Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  2. Is The AI Selloff A Buying Opportunity? | Warren Pies

    53 Min.

    Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath? This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to …

    Shownotes

    Is the AI trade busting or is the market just catching its breath?


    This week, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins us to explain why he took equity risk off while still believing the AI build-out has room to run.


    We also explore financials vs. staples flashing caution, why Fed hikes are the biggest risk to AI, and how the Iran blockade and diesel cracks are reshaping oil. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research

    04:23 Financials vs. Staples Flash Caution

    08:35 Finding Signal in Noisy Markets

    12:32 Fidelity, DAS London

    13:43 Is the AI Trade Still Intact?

    20:04 Who Finances the AI Build-Out?

    26:18 Fidelity, DAS London

    27:35 The Fed vs. the Investment Boom

    32:04 Debt Issuance and CoreWeave's Bonds

    35:12 Will the Fed Protect the AI Race?

    37:51 How Fragile Is the Rest of the Economy?

    39:44 Iran, the Blockade and Oil

    44:55 Durable Changes to the Oil Landscape

    48:15 What Fixes Blown-Out Diesel Cracks?


    FOLLOW WARREN

    › Warren – https://x.com/WarrenPies

    › 3Fourteen – https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    RESOURCES

    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  3. The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup

    59 Min.

    The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help. This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end. We explore gold …

    Shownotes

    The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help.


    This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end.


    We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Brewers Win the World Series

    02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents

    08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike

    12:46 Fidelity / DAS London

    13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900

    19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing?

    29:29 Fidelity / DAS London

    30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI

    39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply

    44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest

    51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election

    53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack

    57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing


    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  4. The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup

    57 Min.

    Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained? This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story. We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI …

    Shownotes

    Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?


    This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.


    We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two

    01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%

    02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up

    05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case

    09:45 Reading The Oil Curve

    12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

    13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs

    16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries

    20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through

    23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions

    29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

    30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan

    36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices

    39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?

    44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?

    54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing


    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  5. Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?

    33 Min.

    Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore …

    Shownotes

    Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?


    This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market.


    We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge?

    07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

    07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains?

    10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital

    16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

    17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market

    23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin

    26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity?


    FOLLOW GUESTS

    › Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x

    › Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc

    › Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    RESOURCES

    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  6. The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup

    52 Min.

    Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and …

    Shownotes

    Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?


    This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.


    We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation?

    07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October?

    11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

    12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine

    16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming?

    21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot

    26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

    27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts?

    32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter?

    40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work?

    44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety?

    49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    SPONSORS

    › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

    http://fidelity.com/crypto


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing


    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  7. Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain

    20 Min.

    Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of …

    Shownotes

    Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?


    This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.


    We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain

    04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?

    06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream

    09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps

    13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right?

    15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance

    18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned


    FOLLOW GUESTS

    › Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat

    › Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

    › DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS


    RESOURCES

    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  8. America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup

    54 Min.

    Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide …

    Shownotes

    Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?


    This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.


    We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?

    08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks

    14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?

    19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act

    22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?

    29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher

    33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?

    38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt

    43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma

    48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


    › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

    https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.


    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  9. The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

    1 Std. 2 Min.

    The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something …

    Shownotes

    The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.


    This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.


    We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising

    07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?

    11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?

    16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?

    19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade

    23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?

    26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over

    29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?

    35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?

    39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?

    44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?

    50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks

    53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?

    58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto.


    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  10. The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup

    1 Std. 13 Min.

    What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s …

    Shownotes

    What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?


    This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.


    We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?

    08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading

    13:11 The Return Of Stagflation

    21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?

    25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?

    32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation

    35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?

    48:45 The European Debasement Trade

    59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?

    01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.


    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  11. The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt

    54 Min.

    Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock …

    Shownotes

    Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.


    This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.


    We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed

    10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?

    18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit)

    20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again?

    27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive

    35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free?

    39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?

    42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge?

    47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets?

    53:22 Closing Thoughts


    FOLLOW GUEST

    › X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt

    › LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/

    › Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/

    › Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  12. The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

    45 Min.

    Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming …

    Shownotes

    Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.


    This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.


    We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?

    06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?

    11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap

    18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)

    20:05 Will The Fed Hike?

    26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?

    30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?

    33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?

    37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?

    43:22 Final Thoughts


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  13. Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

    45 Min.

    The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the …

    Shownotes

    The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?


    This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.


    We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?

    10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance

    12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again?

    18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold

    23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive

    27:56 The Opportunity In Silver

    29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin?

    32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries?

    36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem?

    41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy?


    FOLLOW GUESTS

    › Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

    › Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise

    › Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  14. Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

    53 Min.

    The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals …

    Shownotes

    The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.


    This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.


    We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent

    05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?

    08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed

    13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks?

    16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement

    19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit)

    21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma

    27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem

    30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble

    37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook

    42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI?

    47:03 The Debasement Endgame


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

    Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST


    › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  15. Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

    54 Min.

    Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in …

    Shownotes

    Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.


    This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.


    We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game

    12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?

    19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?

    24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?

    29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?

    33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?

    37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?

    41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?

    46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom?

    51:58 Final Thoughts


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  16. The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

    46 Min.

    Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different …

    Shownotes

    Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.


    Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.


    We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime

    06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder

    14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market

    20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope

    29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing?

    37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold

    43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible


    FOLLOW DARIUS

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42

    › 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    EVENTS

    › Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  17. Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup

    60 Min.

    Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to …

    Shownotes

    Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.


    This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.


    We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    00:58 Tyler's Farewell

    04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime

    06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility

    15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle?

    20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade

    24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?

    28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot

    33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft

    40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms?

    44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat

    46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase

    50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows

    55:34 Final Thoughts


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  18. The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian

    32 Min.

    Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily …

    Shownotes

    Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.


    This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.


    We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:01 The Awesome Portfolio

    04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk

    11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift

    14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data

    17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting

    20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight

    22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun

    27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold


    FOLLOW JARED

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap

    › Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  19. The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup

    49 Min.

    AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether …

    Shownotes

    AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.


    This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.


    We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!


    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

    04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

    07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

    12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?

    21:08 Why The Long End Matters

    25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem

    29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?

    33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection

    38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics

    45:46 August Slowdown Risks


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link


    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events


    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  20. AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou

    44 Min.

    AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to …

    Shownotes

    AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.


    Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.


    We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

    06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

    14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency

    18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?

    22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand

    27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening

    32:03 The Memory Bottleneck

    37:07 AI’s Next Phase



    FOLLOW STEVE

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

    › Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/


    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  21. The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup

    54 Min.

    The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We …

    Shownotes

    The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.


    This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.


    We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

    06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets

    12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?

    16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade

    19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze

    23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure

    29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?

    35:29 Can Value Finally Win?

    40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk

    48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  22. Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly

    46 Min.

    Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how …

    Shownotes

    Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.


    This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.


    We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:00 Trading Outside The Box

    06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk

    12:46 AI As A Trading Tool

    19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets

    25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed

    33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook

    41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?

    43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?



    FOLLOW BRENT

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent

    › Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

    › Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  23. The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup

    47 Min.

    Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market …

    Shownotes

    Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.


    This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.


    We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

    07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

    10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?

    12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive

    14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report

    18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?

    24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?

    27:54 How We're Trading This

    32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?

    38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech

    40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto

    44:17 July 4th And The World Cup



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  24. How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan

    45 Min.

    Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors …

    Shownotes

    Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.


    This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.


    We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:04 Bob's Macro Background

    09:21 Data-Driven Macro

    13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead

    16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility

    21:13 Why Data Matters Even More

    25:35 The Two Trades In Rates

    33:16 Balance Sheet Games

    37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop

    43:32 Final Thoughts



    FOLLOW BOB

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro

    › Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  25. Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup

    60 Min.

    The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the …

    Shownotes

    The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.


    This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.


    We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:16 FIFA World Cup

    04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading

    09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation

    12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky

    14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx

    19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates

    25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall

    29:38 Passive Investing Cracking?

    33:37 Market Leadership Rotating

    42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle?

    44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality

    50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power

    55:26 Do Things IRL



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  26. A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

    1 Std. 4 Min.

    A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly? This week, we …

    Shownotes

    A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?


    This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.


    We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead

    08:28 Rate Volatility Returns

    13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen

    18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight

    26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed

    35:55 The Summer Market Setup

    42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test

    46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost

    53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt

    01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  27. The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang

    40 Min.

    A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision. Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s …

    Shownotes

    A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.


    Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.


    We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance

    05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed

    11:19 The New Fed Task Forces

    17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility

    19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight

    23:13 Rethinking Fed Data

    27:46 Weighing AI Productivity

    31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target

    36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal



    FOLLOW JOSEPH

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang

    › Website – https://fedguy.com/

    › YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  28. Blockworks Acquires Messari

    29 Min.

    In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement …

    Shownotes

    In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.


    Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari


    Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks

    Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto

    Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

  29. Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup

    57 Min.

    Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today. This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic …

    Shownotes

    Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.


    This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.


    We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook

    08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap

    12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds

    17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed

    21:48 Mag Loses Leadership

    28:54 The AI Capex Risk

    30:17 The Best Rates Trade

    34:20 Policy Powers The AI War

    38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?

    43:52 The AI Access Divide

    50:34 The Centralization Trade



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

    › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    RESOURCES

    › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

  30. Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen

    52 Min.

    A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide. Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to …

    Shownotes

    A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.


    Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.


    We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!



    TIMESTAMPS:

    00:00 Intro

    01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test

    04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role

    11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?

    14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak

    17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix

    23:30 What's The Policy Plan?

    27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game

    34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global

    40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold

    47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing



    FOLLOW LUKE

    › X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen

    › FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/



    FOLLOW THE SHOW

    › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

    › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

    › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



    EVENTS

    › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

    https://blockworks.com/events



    DISCLAIMER

    Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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