Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Über den Podcast
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.
Folgen 326
Too Much Compute: Why This Top Hedge Fund Manager Believes AI is Heading for a Massive Oversupply | David Orr
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ In this episode of Other People's …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with Militia Capital founder David Orr to discuss the recent unwinding of the massive AI infrastructure and semiconductor trade. Orr explains his contrarian thesis that AI compute is rapidly heading for a massive oversupply because the physical world will take years to catch up with our new abundance of digital intelligence. The conversation explores the deflationary impact AI will have on white-collar jobs, how it threatens the moats of major software companies, and the potential for a societal shift back toward hands-on physical trades. Finally, Orr shares his perspective on the downside protection offered by hyperscalers and how he is managing his fund's net exposure during a volatile market environment.
Read Militia’s new Substack: https://content.militia.com
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:30 AI Trade Unwinds
05:58 CapEx Drives Glut
08:13 Software Correlation
09:42 Hyperscalers Advantage
14:39 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:59 Antitrust And Search
21:18 Physical Bottlenecks
26:02 Demand Narratives Shift
27:14 White Collar Automation
32:20 The Impact on Skilled Labor
34:25 Software Moats and Deflation
38:31 Back to Physical World
44:53 Social Media Moats Debate
51:45 Market Exposure Wrap Up
Structural Flows Will Support Stocks Until the U.S. Treasury Crisis in 2027 | Cem Karsan & Noel Smith | Kai Asset Management
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Cem Karsan and Noel Smith, co-CIOs of …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Cem Karsan and Noel Smith, co-CIOs of Kai Asset Management, join OPM with Max Wiethe to dissect the volatility compression that is currently masking extreme dispersion across equity markets. Karsan explains why the current is one major catalyst away from a fat-tail Minsky moment, while Smith outlines the exact options strategies they are deploying to navigate the market's structural fragility. The duo also breaks down the macro shift toward populist, demand-side economics, predicting that structural inflation is here to stay and the value factor will crush growth investing in that environment. Finally, they reveal why an impending U.S. Treasury crisis will force the Federal Reserve to deploy massive quantitative easing, effectively bringing state-run intervention to U.S. equities to prevent a market collapse.
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Post Midterms Volatility Break
04:20 Crash Risk and Fat Tails
09:52 Catalysts and Timing Window
12:30 Skew Explained and Carry Trade
15:14 AI Calls and Rotation Flows
18:09 Sarmaya LENS ETF
19:36 December OPEX Flow Pressure
27:40 Do You Need a Catalyst?
30:12 Index Calm but Violent Sector Rotation
35:58 Populism Will Drive the Value Factor
44:22 Why Rates Stay Higher
48:50 Treasury Crisis and QE
52:38 Partnership and Process
54:15 Options Structures and Catalysts
57:36 Three-Legged Market Stool
01:04:04 Conclusion
Following the Private Credit Loan Books | Laks Ganapathi
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Laks Ganapathi, founder of Unicus …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Laks Ganapathi, founder of Unicus Research and Minerva Investment Management, where Michael Burry recently joined as a senior advisor, argues that private credit has become a landmine hidden inside retirees’ portfolios. She lays out what she calls the “$2,500 Trap”: wealth managers putting retail investors into illiquid private credit funds that are now gating redemptions. Laks walks through her team’s loan-book forensics across roughly 150 private credit funds and follows the trail into insurers and their affiliated reinsurers in Bermuda and the Caymans, where she has sent a forensic investigator. She tells the story of 777 Partners’ double-pledged collateral and the fallout at Atlantic Coast Life, and describes an insurer she is short whose surplus could be cut in half if its affiliated reinsurers went away. She argues that “AI is disrupting software” is a convenient excuse, since the biggest markdowns in Blue Owl’s OBDC are in healthcare, education, and consumer, and she asks how many first liens are actually first. Laks also covers extend-and-pretend in auto loans, BNPL propping up the consumer, and why she thinks data center debt cracks before direct lending. Recorded November 6, 2026.
Follow Unicus Research on X https://x.com/UnicusResearch
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96Pieces by Unicus Research:
“PIK Your Poison: Blue Owl's (OBDC) Version - I
OBDC’s borrower map, the nesting problem, and what happens to the companies at the end of the chain when the funds get redeemed”:
https://contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/pik-your-poison-blue-owls-obdc-version
“777 Partners Double-Pledged Collateral. Atlantic Coast Life’s Retirees Are Exposed. How Many Insurers Are on the Edge of Receivership? - I”: https://contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/777-partners-double-pledged-collateral
“The $2 Billion Insurance Failure and the Private Equity Firm Golden Gate Capital: The Rise of Insurance Companies’ Quiet Failures. - II”:
https://contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/the-2-billion-insurance-failure-and“Fire Sale Season? Stargate, Vantage and CyrusOne Hit the Auction Block
Hospitality Blues: Hotel debt from the last boom comes due as data center debt from this one goes up for bid”:https://contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/fire-sale-season-stargate-vantage
Follow Monetary Matters on:
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Why This Short Seller Doesn’t Want to Short the AI Bubble | Russell Clark
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Russell Clark, founder of Brumby …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Russell Clark, founder of Brumby, joins Other People’s Money to unpack the market fallout from the recent US midterm elections. They explore the systemic shift toward pro-labor policies and wage-driven inflation, which Clark believes will persistently drive bond yields into the pain zone. The conversation also tackles the massive AI data center build-out, with Clark breaking down exactly why betting against this exponential trend remains an incredibly dangerous game for short sellers. Finally, they discuss the shrinking pool of global capital, what it means for private equity and US homebuilders, and why he believes Japan is quietly emerging as the most attractive market for investors.
Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com/
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:06 Midterms Blue Wave
03:00 Bond Market Fallout
05:17 Data Center Politics
09:08 AI Short Thesis
13:10 Equity Funding Still Flows
17:17 Sarmaya Partners LENS
18:44 Capital Scarcity Rising Yields
23:19 Short Ideas
26:38 Homebuilders
30:23 Fed Hikes And Sticky Inflation
33:11 Buybacks vs. Capex
42:14 Why Japan Looks Different
47:11 Which Trump Policies Persist
50:00 Iran War Politics and Risks
55:29 Conclusion
Growth Expectations Are Probably Too High | Andy Constan on Post-Midterms Macro View, Bond Supply Issue, and QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ The Democrats decisive victories in …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ The Democrats decisive victories in this years midterm elections are already rocking markets and will surely have continued ripple effects for stocks, bonds, and macro universe. Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors joins Monetary Matters Live to breakdown the early reaction from the market and the biggest macro knock on effects. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Preparing For 2027 Inflection in Global Liquidity | Michael Howell’s Bull Case For Bonds and Tepid View of Liquidity-Sensitive Assets
20% discount to annual subscription of Michael Howell’s Substack, “Capital Wars”: https://capitalwars.substack.com/MonetaryMatters This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s …
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20% discount to annual subscription of Michael Howell’s Substack, “Capital Wars”:
https://capitalwars.substack.com/MonetaryMatters
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
The AI build-out is draining liquidity. Hyperscalers need close to $1 trillion of debt a year for the next two years, with equity issuance right behind, and roughly 80% of AI funding now comes from markets rather than cash flow.
Michael Howell explains why transformative-technology booms usually end in recessions or financial crises, why the global liquidity cycle has already turned, and what that means for stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and gold heading into 2027. Recorded October 29, 2026.
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Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
The Fed Better Have AI's Back Or There Will Be Problems | Dan Krausz on “Liquidity Trap Door” In AI Infrastructure and Why Policymakers Are Inclined to Support Financial Conditions
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Dan Kraus of Blue Door Asset …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Dan Kraus of Blue Door Asset Management argues that the AI sell-off isn’t about AI fundamentals but about liquidity. As the buildout shifted from hyperscaler cash to market financing, it began competing with Treasuries for capital, so weaker credits like CoreWeave get hit first when liquidity tightens. In his words, “when liquidity weakens, time frames shorten”: concerns that were 18 months out suddenly get priced today. He explains why he expects policymakers to put “trampolines” under the trapdoor. With Bessent calling the AI race crucial and Warsh calling AI disinflationary, hiking rates to kill the buildout would be inconsistent, and some major investors have even floated a “Fannie Mae for AI.” We break down Warsh’s October press conference, why it matters that he didn’t call the economy overheating the way Greenspan did in 1999, and why Dan expects growth and the consumer to slow in 2027. Dan also explains why the rally in AI-disrupted stocks looks like a short squeeze rather than a comeback, why AI may become table stakes rather than a lasting margin boost, and the four warning signs that deficits have turned negative for equities (none are flashing yet).
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Why Compute Prices Are Still Rising | Steve Hou of Silicon Data on GPU Rental Indices, Fed Meeting, and Anthropic S-1 (LIVE)
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Steve Hou of Silicon Data joins …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Steve Hou of Silicon Data joins Monetary Matters on the day the Fed held rates with two hawkish dissents, Alphabet and Microsoft reported earnings, and two days after Anthropic’s S-1 filing. Silicon Data publishes the GPU rental indices behind CME’s planned compute futures. We discuss why renting an Nvidia H100 costs about 45% more than it did in December, why transaction prices and asking prices have diverged, and whether the forward curve says GPU rents keep rising. We also cover the “crunch spread” between rising GPU costs and falling token prices, what Anthropic’s S-1 reveals about the economics of frontier AI labs, what [Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s capex guidance] means for future compute supply, and how higher interest rates feed into the cost of AI infrastructure. Topics: The 2026 GPU price spike, and why older chips got more expensive Silicon Data vs. Ornn: asking prices vs. transacted prices Compute futures: the CME delay, contango vs. backwardation, and who hedges Token pricing and the crunch spread Anthropic’s S-1: contracted compute vs. spot prices Alphabet and Microsoft capex, and what it means for GPU supply The Fed’s hawkish hold, and rates as a cost of compute Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/ Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Vincent Deluard, Director of Global …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, breaks down why a broader equity bear market may already be underway beneath surface-level index strength. Deluard unpacks the approaching stagflationary squeeze, driven by persistent wage pressures, slowing fiscal subsidies, and a looming political gridlock that strips away both monetary and fiscal safety nets. He outlines a tactical rotation out of equities and into long-term Treasuries over the next six months, capitalizing on year-end liquidity, pension fund rebalancing, and debt ceiling constraints. Finally, the conversation looks abroad to the escalating fiscal spiral in France and the broader structural crisis facing the Eurozone, mapping out why currency devaluation or fragmentation may be inevitable.
Follow Vincent on X: https://x.com/VincentDeluard
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:03 Bear Market Call
02:58 Why Treasuries Now
07:12 Secular Inflation View
08:46 AI Bubble and Taxes
11:38 Fiscal Boost to Margins
14:55 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:22 Fed Stagflation Trap
24:53 Oil Shock Tail Risk
29:24 France Debt Spiral
34:55 Euro Devaluation Fix
40:07 Weak Euro Politics
43:53 Euro Designed for Crisis
48:34 ECB Tightening and Succession
52:33 Brazil Election Shock and Flows
56:12 Brazil Terms of Trade Tailwinds
Citrini: Monkeys Are The Next Bottleneck | Citrini on AI Drug Discovery Experiment & Reflexive Financing Risk to AI Buildout & Hardware Trade
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Citrini teamed up with Anthropic and …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Citrini teamed up with Anthropic and used Claude to design scorpion antivenom candidates in just 64 hours, and 17 of them bound in the lab. The experiment led him to a striking conclusion: AI is commoditizing drug design, and the real bottleneck is now experiments, and monkeys. We get into what AI can and can’t speed up in drug discovery, why he’s bullish on the companies that run experiments, and why a monkey shortage may be the most important constraint in preclinical testing. Then we turn to AI hardware: Citrini was one of the earliest and loudest bulls on the trade, and today he’s light on it, even short some of it. He explains why he rotated out of semis, what lab revenue needs to look like to justify today’s spending, and what would bring him back. We also cover CoreWeave, DeepSeek’s reported 80% margins, his long-Meta, short-Google trade, the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis piece, and homebuilders. Recorded evening of October 21, 2026.Follow Citrini on X https://x.com/citrini
CItrini Research Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/
“Citrini Therapeutics: We Wanted to Use Claude to Create a New Drug. Here’s What Happened.”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrini-therapeutics
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
"Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros"
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ George Noble, the former Fidelity …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
https://sarmayaetf.com/
George Noble, the former Fidelity portfolio manager who ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund and started his career working for Peter Lynch, returns to Monetary Matters to argue that AI is a bubble and the bill is coming due. George explains why he thinks hyperscaler depreciation could exceed $500 billion a year by 2030, enough to wipe out the profits of the companies spending it, and why he calls AI “shale”: a capex arms race that no one can afford to stop. He lays out why he’s short CoreWeave, Tesla, and SpaceX, which he calls a cash-flow-negative AI play with a rocket company attached, and why he believes CoreWeave and many of the neoclouds are zeros short of a bailout. Jack pushes back on Micron’s margins, Elon’s execution, and whether the market has already priced in the risk. George also covers why rising cost of capital is the trigger, why he’s long gold and energy, and why he thinks we’re in “the beginnings of the awakening phase.” It’s a wide-ranging, combative conversation from one of the market’s most vocal AI bears. Recorded October 21, 2026. TO BE CLEAR EXACT QUOTE WAS “SHORT OF A BAILOUT I AM HIGHLY CONFIDENT COREWEAVE IS A ZERO.”
Follow George Noble on X https://x.com/gnoble79
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
George Noble’s Substack, “The Noble Update”: https://substack.com/@georgenoble/posts
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Learn More about Sarmaya LENS
Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or …
Shownotes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world. From there, the conversation turns to semiconductors and whether chip stocks are pricing in a slowdown or still running on hype. Along the way, they look at where the risks are building, who’s most exposed if AI spending cools, and how investors can position for both outcomes. Whether you’re long the AI trade, short it, or somewhere in between, this episode is for you. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive.
Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally. He makes the case that inflation is stuck at 3% because the era of cheap Chinese goods is over, and explains why oil is already effectively $200 a barrel once you count tanker costs and naval security in the Strait of Hormuz. He also covers why diesel shows up in the price of everything, and why Kevin Warsh scrapping forward guidance has left markets feeling around in the dark.
On credit, Jim explains why the blowout in CCC bonds, CoreWeave included, is a handful of problem kids in detention rather than a canary in the coal mine. On AI, he argues it’s 1997, not 2000, and that the bigger risk may be that AI works.
Follow Jim on X: @biancoresearch
Bianco Research: biancoadvisors.com
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Learn More about LENS Sarmaya ETF
The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMO
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply. He also outlines how this equity supply in conjunction with a slowdown in the AI buildout from realizations of an AI overbuild could send the stock market down as much as 50% with even greater pain for the most AI linked companies.
Read GMO’s Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2026/gmo-quarterly-letter_3q-2026.pdf
Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
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X https://x.com/opmpod
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:10 AI Bubble Setup
06:12 Equity Supply Matters More
10:44 IPO Wave Math
15:32 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:59 Dotcom Fiber Parallel
20:32 Finding Non-AI Bets
24:06 Passive Flows and Liquidity
29:40 Credit Risks and Spillovers
37:51 Can Government Backstop AI?
41:48 Credit Stress Check
45:36 Energy Portfolio Benefits
48:13 Value Versus Growth Spreads
50:10 Ex-US AI Winners
54:34 Big Tech Commoditizes Compute
57:00 What If Mega Caps Go Sideways?
01:01:53 Memory: Cyclical Peak Earnings Trap
01:05:09 The Major Crash Scenario
01:10:44 Conclusion
Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of …
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This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions.
Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/
Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR
X https://x.com/opmpod
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Are We in a Bubble?
04:14 Rates Growth and Bonds
07:04 Value Investing Reframed
09:37 Micron Peak Earnings Debate
11:20 Intel Foundry
15:24 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:52 Sizing Themes and Diversifying
18:41 Undervalued Challengers: Lyft & Instacart
29:10 Energy Sector Setup
35:40 Portfolio Construction & Shorts
37:47 Shorting Texas Pacific Land Trust
41:24 Royalty Trusts and Mesabi
47:16 Retail Shorts: Casey’s & Grocers
52:43 AI Industrials, Quantum, & Aerospace
55:37 Offshore Wind and Conclusion
Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Semiconductor earnings have roughly …
Shownotes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet. Fresh off his annual Silicon Valley roadshow, Stacy says demand is "off the charts," nobody has enough compute, and the real constraints are land, power, and clean rooms rather than customer appetite. He explains why Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged the "bottleneck" trades in memory, optics, and power, and why both could trade at 11–12x earnings if their growth targets hold. The conversation covers the HBM-driven memory squeeze, his path to $300 billion-plus in wafer fab equipment spending, and why he leans toward Applied Materials in semicap. Stacy also explains why he doesn't hate Intel for the first time in his career, why traditional cycle indicators may no longer work, and how today's AI buildout differs from the dot-com bubble. Recorded October 5, 2026.
Stacy Rasgon on X https://x.com/Srasgon
Stacy Rasgon on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/stacy-rasgon-6924963/
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Crude tanker rates have exploded to …
Shownotes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) and TORM (TRMD) as the quality names, and explaining why product tankers may finally be catching up. We also cover the aging dark fleet, a potential US diesel export ban, and why J sees dry bulk as the most attractive segment in shipping today, with CMB Tech (CMBT) as his top pick and China's push into Guinean iron ore as a major tailwind. Recorded September 30, 2026.
J Mintzmyer on X https://x.com/mintzmyer
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Pieces Discussed:
“CMB.TECH: Updates From Our Top Shipping Pick Of 2026”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4944783-cmbtech-updates-from-our-top-shipping-pick-of-2026?gt=e5bc41646f6cc54e
“Dry Bulk Shipping Momentum Poised To Continue”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946334-dry-bulk-shipping-momentum-poised-to-continue?gt=b81339756f928160
“Here's What Happens To Shipping When The Strait of Hormuz Reopens”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949498-heres-what-happens-to-shipping-when-strait-of-hormuz-reopens
Value Investor’s Edge: https://www.vieresearch.com/
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your …
Shownotes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:
Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026.
Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Pieces Discussed:
“Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/
“Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before
investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA
Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why …
Shownotes
Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026.
“Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz
BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/
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The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses …
Shownotes
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue
07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A
15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers
16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus
18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity
24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers
29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap
34:46 Why Interval Funds List
39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset
43:33 Permanent Capital Explained
50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity
54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity
01:04:17 Conclusion
Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy
Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the …
Shownotes
Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026.
“Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
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Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 …
Shownotes
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer
02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields
05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate
07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks
08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility
11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom
14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes
17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break
18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending
20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag
23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup
25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?
26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention
31:20 Korea Silicon Boom
35:43 Europe Under Pressure
39:25 Middle East Outlook
43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices
48:34 China Oil Strategy
52:10 Big Calls Wrap
Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his …
Shownotes
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.
Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K
05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates
09:24 Portfolio Positioning
12:28 Managing Miner Cycles
16:26 Plutus
18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer
20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories
33:23 Royalties as Exposure
36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies
42:48 Why Uranium Now
46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply
51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout
54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era
01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks
01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap
01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow
Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now
Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks …
Shownotes
Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield regimes.
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
About David Busch https://trajanwealth.com/leadership/
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Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third …
Shownotes
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: https://fiscal.ai/mm/
Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond convexity versus the rate sensitivity of the AI and neocloud buildout, and why Max thinks estimates for names like Lam Research are far too low. A wide-ranging live reaction spanning the Fed's hardest decision in years and the market's response. Recorded September 16, 2026.
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Hunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters Capital
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric …
Shownotes
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction
07:56 Fraud Report Origin
09:35 Block Models Explained
15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed
21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects
25:12 Venture Like Investing
28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising
33:43 Sentiment and Cycles
38:28 M&A Wave Ahead
43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging
46:57 Long Activism Approach
50:23 Scaling the Strategy
55:10 When Alpha Shows Up
Why Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ultimate Scarce Asset | John Farris of LandFund Partners on Super El Niño, Food Security, and the Sources of Alpha in Farmland
Learn more about LandFund Partners: https://landfundpartners.com/invest#get-started Jack Farley speaks with John Farris, founder & CEO of LandFund Partners and former World Bank agricultural economist, about …
Shownotes
Learn more about LandFund Partners: https://landfundpartners.com/invest#get-started
Jack Farley speaks with John Farris, founder & CEO of LandFund Partners and former World Bank agricultural economist, about the tightening global food equation — and where the return actually comes from in farmland.
The setup: if the world stopped growing crops tomorrow, John says there are roughly 70 days of food in reserve, down from 110 a decade ago. Two billion more people, more protein per capita, less arable land, and productivity gains that have flattened out. Into that comes a Super El Niño that John's heat maps suggest will hit Brazil, Argentina, and India — the last of which depends on the monsoon to grow the world's most-consumed calorie: rice. Commodity futures prices have risen significantly this year.
That's the backdrop. The investment argument rests on three things.The first is a value that sits on no balance sheet. Across most of the eastern US there are no formal water rights, so LandFund carries its water at zero. In the Colorado River states, where those rights did develop, they've compunded at roughly 11% a year over the past thirty-five years, outpacing the S&P 500 over that time period.John argues the same legal framework is coming to the Mid-South within ten years, pushed by the hyperscalers already knocking on his door for water offsets — and that when it arrives, a line item currently marked at nothing gets marked at something.
The second leg is convergence. When LandFund started in 2013, Midwest row crop farmland traded roughly 140% above comparable Mid-South ground; today the gap is 80–100%. John's argument is that the gap should be zero, and that it inverts: land with 300 years of water, 93% irrigation, and the ability to rotate between ten and twenty crops is worth more than land that is high-quality soil but weather-dependent — not less. Iowa bets on rain. He doesn't have to.
The third is operational. LandFund required regenerative practices in its lease agreements since 2021, and John walks through the J-curve economics: $50–100 an acre and a couple of lean years up front, then lower fertilizer use, fewer passes across the field, less irrigation, and net income he estimates runs 30–40% higher than it otherwise would — which flows straight into rents, which flow into rents.
Also covered: the "dirty secret" of powering data centers using 100x the water they consume, riparian rights and what happens when states start metering overuse, what the One Big Beautiful Bill did to price floors through 2032, solar developers paying 3x farmland value for ground with transmission lines, and why US row crop farmland has been negatively correlated to both stocks and bonds.
Disclaimer: This episode is a fireside chat sponsored by LandFund Partners. Any data, statistics, or information discussed is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
About LandFund Partners: https://www.landfundpartners.com/#home
LandFund's piece on water rights: https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2026/06/23/water-rights-the-invisible-asset-farmland-investors-are-beginning-to-price-in/
John Farris on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jofarris/
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
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Timestamps
0:00 Intro on John Farris and LandFund Partners
4:22 70 Days of Food Reserves?
7:45 Super El Niño Risk in 2026
8:31 Iowa vs. the Mississippi Alluvial Aquifer
13:49 Beating NCREIF and the S&P 500: The Playbook
14:55 Water Reserves in Mississippi Alluvial Aquifer Are Immense
20:51 "300 Years of Water at Current Draw Rates"
26:28 Improving the Land and Regenerative farming
32:40 Farm Subsidies and the One Big Beautiful Bill
38:07 Crop rotation: cotton, corn, rice, soybeans
42:53 Is rice the trade right now?
46:39 Soybeans, fertilizer, and China buying again
48:38 Rice at all-time highs
50:11 Optionality beyond farming: Solar, Transmission Lines, Minerals
55:27 Data Centers?
56:09 What's next for LandFund
1:00:37 Why Farmland Has Had Negative Correlation With Risk Assets
1:04:35 Super El Niño: What to Expect
1:06:51 Feeding ten billion people
1:07:40 The 20-year outlook for all Four Crops
What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails (It's Worse Than a Bank) | Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato on How Private Equity Turned Life Insurance Into a Taxpayer Backstop
Andrew Granato, Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Texas at Austin, and Pranjal Drall, JD/PhD candidate at Yale, join Jack Farley to discuss their paper "Private Credit, State Backstop: How Private …
Shownotes
Andrew Granato, Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Texas at Austin, and Pranjal Drall, JD/PhD candidate at Yale, join Jack Farley to discuss their paper "Private Credit, State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers." Private equity ownership of life insurers has grown from roughly $23 billion in 2009 to about $700 billion by 2024, and Granato and Drall argue this has created a system that socializes losses even more sharply than federal deposit insurance does for banks. They walk through how state guarantee funds work: when a life insurer fails, its surviving rivals are assessed based on premium volume rather than risk, and in 44 states those assessments are recouped through tax credits, meaning taxpayers ultimately foot the bill without any vote ever taking place. The conversation covers how PE-linked insurers reallocate balance sheets into opaque private credit and affiliated loans, arbitrage ratings through firms like Egan-Jones and undisclosed private letter ratings, and use Bermuda "shadow reinsurance" to escape disclosure and capital requirements, with leverage reportedly running as high as 30-to-1 or 50-to-1. Jack and the guests also examine emerging run risk from funding agreement-backed notes (FABNs) and policy surrenders, using the Executive Life collapse as a historical precedent. The episode closes with the recent Guggenheim/Delaware Life/Clear Spring scandal, in which Mark Walter's insurers understated affiliated assets (including a loan to LeBron James) at 3% when the true figure was closer to 42%, prompting the sale of the Lakers to raise liquidity. Granato and Drall propose reforms including taxing opacity, banning private letter ratings, pre-funding guarantee funds on a risk-weighted basis, and making insurance holding companies partially liable for guarantee fund assessments. Recorded August 28, 2026.
Paper by Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato, “Private Credit's State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers”:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7152239
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“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession …
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Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning in semis near two-year lows), and Dillian warns that the Situational Awareness blowup was the Bear Stearns of this cycle, not the Lehman. He explains why he thinks AI is a bubble for a reason specific to this cycle: it's the first time in his career he's seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at 6% coupons, for assets that go obsolete in three years. He also lays out his cautiously bullish gold view, why copper is his least favorite metal, why private credit still hasn't found a bottom, and the case for The Awesome Portfolio — equal weights in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate, which gives up one to two points of annual return but halves volatility and has never drawn down more than 12%. Recorded September 1, 2026.
Jared’s new book, “The Awesome Portfolio”: https://lnk.to/theawesomeportfolio
Jared Dillian on X https://x.com/dailydirtnap
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
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The Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff Keller
Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is …
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Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:13 Tech Sector Divergence
05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks
08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking
12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits
17:35 Retail Crowding Warning
20:15 2021Parallels
23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout
27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift
29:43 CapEx is Existential
35:17 Meta Breakdown
39:38 Investor Positioning Themes
41:34 Long Biased Long Short
43:55 What Would Break AI?
46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk
49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes
51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook
56:58 Year End Watchlist
58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect
01:01:06 Conclusion
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