Too Much Compute: Why This Top Hedge Fund Manager Believes AI is Heading for a Massive Oversupply | David Orr
Shownotes
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with Militia Capital founder David Orr to discuss the recent unwinding of the massive AI infrastructure and semiconductor trade. Orr explains his contrarian thesis that AI compute is rapidly heading for a massive oversupply because the physical world will take years to catch up with our new abundance of digital intelligence. The conversation explores the deflationary impact AI will have on white-collar jobs, how it threatens the moats of major software companies, and the potential for a societal shift back toward hands-on physical trades. Finally, Orr shares his perspective on the downside protection offered by hyperscalers and how he is managing his fund's net exposure during a volatile market environment.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:30 AI Trade Unwinds
05:58 CapEx Drives Glut
08:13 Software Correlation
09:42 Hyperscalers Advantage
14:39 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:59 Antitrust And Search
21:18 Physical Bottlenecks
26:02 Demand Narratives Shift
27:14 White Collar Automation
32:20 The Impact on Skilled Labor
34:25 Software Moats and Deflation
38:31 Back to Physical World
44:53 Social Media Moats Debate
51:45 Market Exposure Wrap Up