Sound Investing
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- 11. Nov. 2026
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Weekly podcasts with Paul Merriman. Strategic planning for investing at every stage of life.
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Vanguard vs. DFA & Avantis
I recorded this one on the Friday before the Bogleheads Conference, with factor investing — and my upcoming debate — very much on my mind. It’s a mailbag episode, and your questions pointed me right at the …
Shownotes
I recorded this one on the Friday before the Bogleheads Conference, with factor investing — and my upcoming debate — very much on my mind. It’s a mailbag episode, and your questions pointed me right at the topics I’ll be discussing there.
First, a couple of updates. I’m still getting wonderful emails since Margie slipped news of my 83rd birthday into the newsletter — including one from a listener who started with Tom Cock and me on Sound Investing back in the 1980s and went on to put his own family, and many friends, on the road to financial independence. I also share more feedback from “Ed,” who went through PlanVision’s low-cost financial-planning service, including his experience getting help with Roth conversion decisions.
Then I dig into the questions you’ve been sending:
10:30 — What’s the real difference between Dimensional (DFA) and Avantis funds, and where does Vanguard fit? A short history of factor investing, and why owning both DFA and Avantis can actually add diversification
18:05 — Bruce worries about the S&P 500’s concentration in a handful of tech names. Should you split your large-cap blend across a cap-weighted fund (VOO), an equal-weighted fund (RSP), and a factor fund (AVLC)?
24:39 — A reader’s proposed 100%-stock-for-life portfolio, and how the DFA and Avantis all-in-one funds compare
28:20 — The combination funds I keep getting asked about (AVGE, AVGV and VT), and why a simple “thirds” approach added about 1% a year over a recent stretch
39:35 — John is 51, planning to FIRE this summer with $1.8 million and a 2.8% withdrawal rate, and wants to go all-in on worldwide small-cap value. Why I’d say no, and what Bill Bernstein would tell him
53:08 — How to find a good small-cap value fund (and why I favor AVUV and DFSV), plus what Morningstar’s percentile rankings really tell you
1:01:12 — The question I can’t wait to answer for a family of young investors at the conference: is there a good “mild factor tilt” for life? I walk through our Table G1B to show exactly what more small-cap value adds, in both return and riskAs always, thank you for your feedback, your donations, and for staying the course even on the hard days. I hope to see many of you at the Bogleheads Conference!
Important Research on Adding Value and Profitablity to Your Portfolio
This week I want to look at what the first ten months of 2026 can teach us about how we invest — and why broad diversification keeps looking like the smartest seat in the house.I start with a Ben Carlson piece …
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This week I want to look at what the first ten months of 2026 can teach us about how we invest — and why broad diversification keeps looking like the smartest seat in the house.
I start with a Ben Carlson piece from November 1. If you’ve been picking individual tech and AI stocks lately, it has felt like a bloodbath: Google down more than 30% from its highs, Intel off 54%, Netflix down more than 50%, and a long list of others in the penalty box. And yet the S&P 500 is still up almost 12% on the year, with two-thirds of stocks higher. That gap is the whole case for index funds — and the same logic applies to equity asset classes.
From there I go down my favorite rabbit hole: the year-to-date numbers for Vanguard, Avantis and DFA across large, small, value, REITs, international and emerging markets — and what the differences between “traditional” cap-weighted indexing and the factor-based approach at Avantis and DFA may, and may not, be telling us.
I also dig into combination funds. How did a 70/30 Ultimate Buy and Hold compare with Vanguard’s global VT and with an all-in-one like Avantis’ AVGE? Why does holding these asset classes under one umbrella make rebalancing more tax-efficient in a taxable account? And I walk through a new Avantis study, Risk and Return of Tilted Portfolios, that estimates how much adding value and profitability tilts — and small-cap value — may have added to long-term returns.
Finally, I talk honestly about the hardest part of all of this: tracking error, the temptation to measure yourself against the S&P 500 or your neighbor, and why your willingness to stay the course matters more than any single fund choice. Plus a preview of my upcoming Boglehead Conference debate with Jim Dahle — total market index versus small-cap value.
One nice surprise was an email from Feedspot, a huge database of just about every corner of media — podcasts, blogs, influencers and YouTubers. We were pleased to be included in their Top 26 Mutual Funds Podcasts. We came in 3rd, and it was great to see Don and Tom at Talking Real Money sitting right at the top of the list. Tom and Don have been doing this work for more than 25 years, and they were my teachers when the three of us worked on a weekly radio show and, later, the Sound Investing podcast. If you know their work, you can imagine how much fun it was — some of the best days of my life!
As always, thank you for your feedback, your birthday wishes and your generous support of our work. I hope this one helps.
Timestamps
00:57 — Thank-you for feedback, birthday wishes, and donations
03:04 — The Ben Carlson article: tech/AI stocks down while the S&P 500 is up
05:52 — The case for index funds and broad diversification
06:55 — Our approach: Vanguard vs. Avantis and DFA (traditional vs. factor investing)
09:19 — 10-month performance across the asset classes
15:34 — Combination / all-in-one funds (AVGE, AVGV, Ultimate Buy and Hold)
19:56 — The tax advantage of all-in-one rebalancing
21:17 — How the 2-, 4-, and 5-fund strategies began (Bogle, 2017)
21:53 — Preview of the Boglehead debate with Jim Dahle
22:52 — Seth Godin’s “Not Yet” and the evolution of indexing
29:16 — The Avantis study: Risk and Return of Tilted Portfolios
32:24 — Value, profitability, and focusing on financially strong companies
33:11 — The Bessembinder study
41:33 — Tracking error and the patience test
46:30 — A simple three-way framework for a retiree’s equities
46:11 — Staying the courseFinding an Hourly Advisor from 30,000 feet
Aloha from Oahu! I recorded this one from our hotel room in Hawaii, where my wife and I came to celebrate our two birthdays — three days apart, if not the same year. I promised Zan I’d only work from four to …
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Aloha from Oahu! I recorded this one from our hotel room in Hawaii, where my wife and I came to celebrate our two birthdays — three days apart, if not the same year. I promised Zan I’d only work from four to seven each morning on this trip, and this was the one podcast I wasn’t willing to miss.
It kicks off something I’ve wanted to do for a long time: an honest, practical look at one of the biggest forks in the road a do-it-yourself investor ever faces — whether to manage your money yourself or hire someone to help, and if you hire help, what kind.
This first episode is the view from 30,000 feet. Over the coming weeks and months I’ll dig much deeper, including interviews with organizations like Hello Nectarine, NAPFA and the Garrett Planning Network.
In this episode:
07:29 — Why every investor is really starting a business, and why “hiring” index funds and ETFs is step one
15:29 — Why the future you’re paying an advisor to predict is one they can’t predict any better than you can
27:40 — The difference between commission salespeople, assets-under-management (AUM) advisors, and hourly or flat-fee planners
36:25 — The conflict of interest almost no one talks about, and why it reaches all the way to the day an advisory firm is sold
47:10 — How a $5 million investor paying 0.8% ($40,000 a year) might get the same help from an hourly or flat-fee planner for $8,000–$12,000
54:34 — Whether you’re a few years from retirement, already there, or just want to make this decision with your eyes open, I think you’ll find something useful
54:53 — Why I recently paid $3,400 to test an hourly advisor myself, and why I’m glad I didThis is the first of at least two or three episodes on this topic. I’d love your feedback and your questions for the ones ahead — email me at [email protected].
The Two Biggest Paydays of My Life
As Paul turned 83 last week, he recorded this podcast in his studio office surrounded by piles of articles and notes for future recordings and a good deal of gratitude. He says this may be his favorite podcast …
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As Paul turned 83 last week, he recorded this podcast in his studio office surrounded by piles of articles and notes for future recordings and a good deal of gratitude. He says this may be his favorite podcast he's ever made.
He starts with the two biggest paydays of his life. The first was December 31, 2012, the day he sold his part of the firm he'd started in 1983 and walked into retirement with a promise to his wife that he'd never work for money again. The second happened in the last 48 hours, and not a dollar changed hands. He also has a word of caution for anyone who credits him for what their portfolio has done.
Then an epiphany. After reading a recent Adam Grossman piece in HumbleDollar, Paul began to question whether John Bogle's "stay the course" really belongs as the number one rule for being a successful long-term investor. He took the question to ChatGPT, shares the whole conversation, and comes away with a new rule number one, plus a line he thinks an 18-year-old might still remember at 65.
The third topic is bonds. Paul has been reading a lot of negative commentary about them lately, so he goes back to Table B1 and walks through 56 years of history: how many losing years the S&P 500 had since 1970, how many the short-to-intermediate bond portfolio had, what the worst 12 months and worst 60 months looked like, and why he and his wife hold the mix they do at 83. He also explains why long-term bonds are not the answer, and what the numbers since 1928 say about the premium you get for their extra risk.
LINKS
Office Hours: Teachers Questions Answered
In this special office-hours session, Albert and I answer the questions teachers have been sending in across our four NGPF classroom sessions — more than 500 educators strong.We move fast and cover a lot of …
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In this special office-hours session, Albert and I answer the questions teachers have been sending in across our four NGPF classroom sessions — more than 500 educators strong.
We move fast and cover a lot of ground:
1. How a young person can open a first investment account (and why $1 is all it takes to start at Fidelity) 02:36
2. My favorite books on saving, investing and index funds 10:58
3. The best free websites and videos for teachers and students 12:51
4. How to make inflation real in the classroom — yes, the bubble-gum story 19:19
5. Why asset classes like small-cap value and large-cap growth behave so differently 25:15
6. A live walk-through of Morningstar’s style boxes and the chart function 34:45
7. Advice for reaching first-generation and lower-income students 47:24
8. What would be the job to suggest to a middle schooler to get them more interested in math and economics?Whether you teach this material or you’re just getting started yourself, I think you’ll find something here you can put to use.
The $5 Million Pay off for a Financially Literate High School Graduate
WATCH THE VIDEOThis is the fourth of five presentations I recorded for Next Gen Personal Finance (NGPF.org) and am sharing with Sound Investing listeners.I titled this one “The $5 Million Payoff for a …
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This is the fourth of five presentations I recorded for Next Gen Personal Finance (NGPF.org) and am sharing with Sound Investing listeners.
I titled this one “The $5 Million Payoff for a Financially Literate High School Graduate” — but I could have called it the $42 million payoff, and by the end you’ll see the math that makes it believable. I walk through the single biggest decision of all (stocks vs. bonds), 100 years of market history, why the first five years of investing matter most, and how low costs, low taxes, and automation turn small savings into a fortune over a lifetime.
FREE BOOK THIS WEEK
Spending Your Way to Wealth (see Appendix E)
https://investorship.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/SYWTW.pdfTABLES AND RESEARCH
https://www.paulmerriman.com/data-tablesQUESTIONS
[email protected] (put “NGPF” in the subject line)Join us next week for the final session: Financial Literacy Office Hours with Paul Merriman.
The Inside Story About Diversification
Harry Markowitz called diversification "the only free lunch in finance." In this session, part of Paul's series for Next Gen Personal Finance educators, Paul Merriman explains what that means in practice, and …
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Harry Markowitz called diversification "the only free lunch in finance." In this session, part of Paul's series for Next Gen Personal Finance educators, Paul Merriman explains what that means in practice, and why a well-diversified portfolio can help investors stay the course through good markets and bad.
Paul covers the history and math behind diversification, from Don Quixote's "don't put all your eggs in one basket" to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Sir John Templeton. He explains the three kinds of risk investors face (company, market, and asset class), and shows how the "lost decade" of 2000–2009 hit S&P 500 investors hard while more diversified portfolios kept growing.
You'll also hear:
- How adding small "baby steps" of large cap value, small cap, and REITs added about 1% a year to returns since 1970
- Why the two-fund strategy (half S&P 500, half small cap value) may be less risky than it looks
- What a young investor putting away as little as $1,000 a year could build over a lifetime
- A simple "ultimate buy and hold" for hands-off investors: a target date fund plus a slice of small cap value
Plus, Paul shares a free book from market historian Bill Bernstein.
Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/MDqaIojI8TE
Free book: If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly
Tables and research: paulmerriman.com/data-tables
Send your questions to Paul at [email protected] (include "NGPF" in the subject line)
The #1 Reason to Use Index Funds
Watch the video here.This is the second of five presentations Paul recorded for Next Generation Personal Finance (NGPF.org), whose free curriculum reaches some 150,000 teachers. The sessions weren't open to the …
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This is the second of five presentations Paul recorded for Next Generation Personal Finance (NGPF.org), whose free curriculum reaches some 150,000 teachers. The sessions weren't open to the public, but NGPF has allowed Paul to share each one with Sound Investing listeners.
The subject is index funds, and Paul starts where the story starts: John Bogle, 1976, and a fund launch that nearly got cancelled before it opened.
From there he looks at what the evidence actually says about active management over 20 years, why most investors never hear about the costs that quietly come out of their returns, and what happens to a fund that doesn't perform. He also introduces the non-traditional index funds from Dimensional and Avantis that he believes give young investors their best opportunity, and closes with stories from the 90 minutes he spent in Jack Bogle's office.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction
02:44 What is an index fund?
04:38 John Bogle and the first index fund
08:50 Active vs. passive: beat the market or be the market
10:52 The SPIVA report
14:53 Quartiles and the 20-year picture
19:49 How long do mutual funds survive?
22:05 Asset class and style drift
25:14 The tax cost of active management
28:51 Bogle on costs and the hidden drags on return
35:18 Myths about index funds
38:28 Beating the S&P 500 with index funds
42:35 Traditional vs. non-traditional index funds
49:06 Dimensional and Avantis
50:23 The number one reason to use index funds
55:46 Stories from meeting Jack Bogle
59:25 Wrap-upNGPF: ngpf.org
The Math and the History of Investing
WATCH THE VIDEOWant to build a multi-million-dollar retirement portfolio without gambling on single stocks? This is the first session of the four-part series I recorded for the teachers of Next Gen Personal …
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Want to build a multi-million-dollar retirement portfolio without gambling on single stocks? This is the first session of the four-part series I recorded for the teachers of Next Gen Personal Finance — and I’m sharing it here with you. In it, I break down the timeless principles, the math and the market history every long-term investor needs to know.WHAT YOU’LL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE
• The Math of Compounding [01:43] — how finding an extra 0.5% to 1% in returns — or starting just five years earlier — can add millions to your lifetime wealth.
• The Power of Starting Early [09:48] — why your initial investment years build your foundation, and how both bull and bear markets work in favor of young, disciplined savers.
• Budgeting Strategy [19:43] — applying the “Pay Yourself First” rule and the 50/30/20 framework to establish sustainable saving habits.
• Stocks vs. Bonds [22:44] — understanding why stocks are low-risk for long-term growth, while bonds carry inflation risk over decades.
• Market Diversification [30:08] — why 4% of companies generate nearly all stock-market gains, and how owning total-market index funds ensures you don’t miss out on them.
• Equity Asset Classes [37:59] — comparing large-cap blend, large-cap value, small-cap blend and small-cap value to reduce volatility and boost returns.
• Target-Date Funds [49:38] — why automated, age-tailored allocation helps investors stay the course and avoid emotional mistakes.Tune in to discover how staying the course, keeping expenses low, and letting history guide your strategy can transform your financial future.
Join us next week for The #1 Reason to Invest in Index Funds.
Get Out While You Can or Stay the Course
Paul opens with news of a new opportunity to reach young investors: a five-part series for Next Generation Personal Finance (NGPF.org), available to some 150,000 teachers who use NGPF's free curriculum. Topics …
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Paul opens with news of a new opportunity to reach young investors: a five-part series for Next Generation Personal Finance (NGPF.org), available to some 150,000 teachers who use NGPF's free curriculum. Topics include the math and history of investing, the case for index funds, the inside story on diversification, the $5 million payoff for a financially literate high school graduate, and a teacher Q&A session. Each presentation will be shared with Sound Investing listeners the following week.
Then Paul turns to two listener questions that go to the heart of how people actually experience the market.
The first asks whether broad diversification really produces the best returns, or whether a more focused portfolio would do better. He walks through the Bessembinder research showing that roughly 4% of companies drove most of the market's long-term return, Fama and French data on small cap value going back almost 100 years, and Vanguard's own real time returns since 1998 comparing $10,000 invested in the S&P 500, mid cap, small cap blend and small cap value asset classes.
The second is a letter from an investor who put his first real savings, earned at $7 an hour, into Fidelity Magellan in 1985, lost 30% on Black Monday in October 1987, and pulled everything out. Forty years later he still fears the next crash and asks whether Paul's Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio could leave him waking up with half his money gone.
Paul closes with a story about five 24-year-old engineers he met on Bainbridge Island, and an offer to anyone who can gather a group that would benefit from a conversation about investing.
LINKS
Fine-Tuning Your Asset Allocation tables
NGPF: ngpf.org
The Investing Myths That Cost a Fortune
WATCH THE VIDEOIt was a pleasure to be invited back on System Trader with Jack Lempart. Here is a list of the main topics we covered:CHAPTERS0:53 • My own biggest mistake3:15 • Why “the stock market is a …
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WATCH THE VIDEO
It was a pleasure to be invited back on System Trader with Jack Lempart. Here is a list of the main topics we covered:CHAPTERS
0:53 • My own biggest mistake
3:15 • Why “the stock market is a casino” is exactly backwards
6:48 • “I don’t have enough money to start” — what $100 a month actually becomes
9:33 • A $20 bet with my 13-year-old grandson
13:04 • How much intelligence does successful investing really require?
15:31 • The Mensa Investment Club: buy low, sell lower
16:24 • Three books for the psychological hurdles
17:38 • “It’s a bad time to invest right now” — the myth that never dies
20:00 • Why a falling market is the best thing that can happen to a young investor
24:21 • Can a star manager do it for you? SPIVA and Bill Miller
30:21 • An ETF is only a wrapper — how do you grade what’s inside it?
33:01 • Traditional vs. non-traditional index funds
35:49 • Home bias: half U.S., half international, and the lost decade
44:04 • Cap-weighted vs. asset-class weighted funds
46:26 • Finding your right level of risk before the market tests you
55:20 • Is the small-cap value premium dead?
62:52 • Financial literacy in high school — and who’s teaching on TikTok
64:21 • Where the biggest premium comes from: size, value, quality and momentum
69:29 • The one thing to do tomorrow morning: control what you can, then automatePaul and Chris Follow-Up: The Rick Ferri Small-Cap Value Debate
Paul and Chris reflect on Paul’s recent discussion with Rick Ferri. Paul adds information he wished he’d included, and Chris reacts to Paul and Rick’s positions. Together, they discuss the behavioral, trust …
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Paul and Chris reflect on Paul’s recent discussion with Rick Ferri. Paul adds information he wished he’d included, and Chris reacts to Paul and Rick’s positions. Together, they discuss the behavioral, trust, and performance benefits and trade-offs of seeking meaningful diversification by adding Small-Cap Value to a portfolio.
CHAPTERS
00:00:00 – Intro
00:02:50 – Chris’ 30k Foot View
00:06:16 – Mid-caps?
00:10:40 – Tot. Mkt. vs. S&P 500
00:20:15 – Trust and Change
00:25:45 – Table G1b
00:28:50 – VT vs. AVGE
00:42:20 – Dollar-Cost-Averaging
00:52:00 – Paul’s Grandson’s Question
00:53:08 – Gold funds
00:59:40 – Travel plans
01:02:20 – OutroTable G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value
Paul Merriman and Rick Ferri: A Conversation Decades in the Making
Watch the video here.Paul sits down with Rick Ferri — not for a debate, but for the kind of honest conversation two people can only have after spending their careers chasing the same goal from different …
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Paul sits down with Rick Ferri — not for a debate, but for the kind of honest conversation two people can only have after spending their careers chasing the same goal from different directions.
Rick makes the case against tilting: the small cap premium largely disappeared once the research went public around 1980, and he believes value stopped working around 2006. Paul counters with Table G1b, which shows the results of blending small cap value and the S&P 500 in 10% increments from 1970 through 2025 — returns alongside the worst drawdowns each combination had to survive. Then Rick does something unexpected — he crosses to Paul's side of the table and builds a strong argument for small cap value, framing it as a way to capture the return of private companies that represent half of the economy.
Where they land is less about who's right than what it costs to be wrong. If you go down the factor road, Rick says, it's a lifetime commitment — not three years.
Also covered: lump sum versus dollar cost averaging, what an hourly advisor can do to help do-it-yourself investors implement their new portfolio, the new Trump accounts for newborns, and why VT may not be your best choice in a taxable account.
Both Paul and Rick will be at the Bogleheads Conference, November 13–15 at Green Valley Ranch Resort and Spa in Henderson, NV, near Las Vegas. Registration: boglecenter.net/2026conference
Table G1b — Fine Tuning Table: S&P 500 vs. US Small Cap Value: View the table
Stay tuned for next week's podcast, a discussion with Chris Pedersen about this interview with Rick.
Preparing for an upcoming debate with Rick Ferri: Total Market portfolios
This Friday I'm sitting down with my friend Rick Ferri for a debate that I think matters a great deal, even though — or maybe because — Rick and I agree on almost everything. We both believe in diversification …
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This Friday I'm sitting down with my friend Rick Ferri for a debate that I think matters a great deal, even though — or maybe because — Rick and I agree on almost everything. We both believe in diversification, low costs, index funds, ignoring predictions, and staying the course. Where we part ways is what happens after that.
Rick's case is that you should simply own the whole market. A total stock market index fund gives you thousands of companies at an extraordinarily low cost, and adding complexity rarely pays. My case is that the academic research — Fama, French, and decades of market history — shows that greater exposure to small and value companies may raise long-term expected returns. Rick calls that factor tilting. I call it better diversification. He'll argue I'm not adding diversification at all, just changing the weights, and he's right that this is exactly what we're doing. The question is whether it's worth doing.
We also take on a second question that gets far too little attention: if you do want small and value exposure, where should you get it? Vanguard, Fidelity, DFA or Avantis — traditional indexing or systematic portfolio management? Differences that look trivial today can compound into very large ones over 40 or 50 years.
Neither of us is trying to win. Rick may be right. I may be right. Ask us again in 50 years. What I hope you take away is the process — examining evidence, understanding the alternatives, admitting what nobody knows, and committing to a strategy you can stick with. Because every strategy disappoints you eventually, and what you do in that moment matters more than which one you chose.
The podcast and video of my conversation with Rick will be available Wednesday, August 19, 2026. If you have any questions for Rick, send them to [email protected].
Finding the Perfect Advisor, a Battle Over Words and VT vs. AVGE
Paul returns from three days at the Garrett Planning Network retreat with a lesson that has almost nothing to do with investments — and everything to do with getting your money's worth from professional …
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Paul returns from three days at the Garrett Planning Network retreat with a lesson that has almost nothing to do with investments — and everything to do with getting your money's worth from professional advice.
Garrett advisors work by the hour, a business model Paul believes eliminates the conflicts of interest built into assets-under-management relationships. For $1,000 to $8,000, he's convinced most families can get extraordinary value from five to ten hours with a thoughtful, trained hourly planner. But there's a catch: the value of those hours depends almost entirely on your willingness to tell the truth. Inspired by a Seth Godin observation — people lie in focus groups, on surveys, and to themselves — Paul explains why the most valuable planning meeting isn't the one where you look financially successful. It's the one where you're completely honest. Paul and his wife are putting this to the test with an hourly planner of their own, and he'll report back in the weeks ahead.
Next, Paul shares a private conversation with his longtime friend Rick Ferri, who challenged an idea Paul has taught for decades: that small cap value, large cap value, and international are equity asset classes at all. Rick argues there's only one equity asset class — the total market — and everything else is a segment or style. Paul takes the challenge seriously, does some digging, and explains why the answer matters far more than a debate over definitions. How you think about asset classes shapes the portfolio you'll live with for the next 60 or 70 years.
Finally, Paul digs into AVGE, the Avantis globally diversified all-equity ETF, and how it compares to Vanguard's total market approach (VT and VTI). He walks through the meaningful differences: 70/30 U.S./international at Avantis versus 60/40 at Vanguard, and substantially larger positions in mid cap value, small cap value, and small cap blend. He looks at what those tilts have meant historically — including Vanguard's own mid cap value fund turning $10,000 into roughly $160,000 versus $102,000 for the S&P 500 — and why he believes the extra 0.17% in expenses may be money well spent. For investors who don't want to go all-in, Paul offers simple combinations, like a third VT, a third AVGE, and a third AVUV.
CHAPTERS
00:00 – Introduction: three topics from the Garrett retreat
01:56 – Why hourly advisors have fewer conflicts of interest
05:52 – The catch: your willingness to tell the truth
06:38 – Seth Godin: "People lie... and they lie to themselves"
08:04 – What planners can't fix if they don't know about it
13:00 – Paul's debate with Rick Ferri: what is an equity asset class?
18:05 – Why the definition shapes your lifetime portfolio
21:34 – AVGE vs. VT: U.S./international balance
23:07 – Comparing value, blend, and growth exposure
25:00 – Mid cap and small cap: what history shows
30:15 – Expense ratios and what you're paying for
31:35 – Simple combinations: VT + AVGE + AVUV
33:15 – Stay the course: closing thoughtsAVGV, Truth Tellers, AI and Finding Your Why
Paul discusses his upcoming trip to Minneapolis to address almost 100 hourly financial planners at the Garrett Planning Network annual retreat — then shows, in real time, how he uses AI alongside the Truth …
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Paul discusses his upcoming trip to Minneapolis to address almost 100 hourly financial planners at the Garrett Planning Network annual retreat — then shows, in real time, how he uses AI alongside the Truth Tellers. This example is prompted by a Ben Felix video arguing that most people save without knowing their real “why.” Paul asked ChatGPT to explore the question and shares the full AI response, which includes the six steps to creating your “why” — from “dream before you calculate” to purpose → plan → portfolio.
In the second part of this podcast he responds to the many listeners who have asked: build the worldwide all-value portfolio with five Avantis ETFs, or simply buy AVGV, a single ETF that owns the same ETFs but in different percentages? Over three years, AVGV compounded at 21.1% (up 77.4%), while the five-fund do-it-yourself version compounded at 22.2% (up 82.6%) with no rebalancing. Doing the work likely earns a better return — but a Morningstar study suggests most investors do better buying the single ETF, because it takes care of all the rebalancing and overcomes the tendency to chase returns as money is added.
Paul would appreciate your feedback on this podcast: [email protected].
LINKS
• Ben Felix video on investor myths
• Morningstar “Mind the Gap 2025” study
• Garrett Planning Network — find an hourly advisor
• Meet the Truth TellersStuff Happens: Perspective From Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward
The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course.In …
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The hardest part of investing isn't choosing funds — it's building a set of beliefs strong enough to keep you disciplined when the market, the news, and your own emotions all conspire to pull you off course.
In this episode, Paul sets aside the usual fine-tuning tables and turns to one of his favorite books, Ben Carlson's Risk and Reward. Table by table, Ben makes the same point in a dozen different ways: the bad stuff is normal, it's happened before, and it will happen again. The goal isn't to avoid it — it's to expect it, so you can stay the course.
Along the way, Paul walks through:
• The 10 worst days, months, and years in market history — and how the market behaved 1, 5, and 10 years later
• Why bonds turn a 43% stock loss into something far gentler, and why a simple 60/40 has never had a losing 20-year period
• How stocks actually perform before, during, and after a recession (the average is a gain)
• The "dead cat bounces" of 2000–2002 and why three years of false hope wear investors down
• What a century of international returns says about putting all your eggs in one basket
• The most quietly important number in investing: the market's average daily return of 0.03% — a lifetime of baby stepsThe theme underneath it all: future returns will likely look a lot like the past. We simply have no way to know the sequence — and that's exactly why realistic expectations, low costs, and broad diversification matter more than any forecast.
The biggest enemy of the investor, as the data keeps showing, isn't the market. It's the investor.
BRINGING FINANCIAL FREEDOM TO NEW AUDIENCES
Last week I spent more than three hours with 89 graduating nurses at Texas A&M University, exploring one life-changing idea: how a handful of smart financial decisions can add millions of dollars to your lifetime financial security. Many of you asked to see what these presentations look like, so we're making this one available to watch (link below).
LINKS
• Ben Carlson, Risk and Reward (Foundation earns when you use this link)
• Texas A&M nursing school presentation (3+ hour video)
• Texas A&M student feedback
• Mike Piper, Social Security Made Simple / other titles
• Personal Finance in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies
• Free books from Paul Merriman
• Boot Camp series & tablesIs it possible that factor investing won't work?
A longtime listener wrote in after watching a Ben Felix video making the point that factor investing may not beat the S&P 500 by the end of an investor’s lifetime — and could even do worse. His question was …
Shownotes
A longtime listener wrote in after watching a Ben Felix video making the point that factor investing may not beat the S&P 500 by the end of an investor’s lifetime — and could even do worse. His question was simple: is factor investing really worth the effort?
Paul’s answer turned out to be two answers, so he’s splitting it into two episodes. This week is about the thinking. Next week is about the evidence — including new data Daryl Bahls just sent over.
Paul also tries something new: using AI to canvas the writings of the Truth Tellers and surface what they would say about this exact question. What emerges is a point they all agree on — good decisions do not guarantee good outcomes, and bad decisions sometimes produce wonderful ones. Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, Ben Felix, Mike Piper, Christine Benz, Rob Berger, Jim Dahle and Jack Bogle each frame the same distinction: expected returns are not realized returns, and probability is not certainty.
Investing is one long series of forks in the road — save or spend, stocks or bonds, index or active, buy-and-hold or market timing — and none of them come with a guarantee. What they come with is a probability. The job is to choose thoughtfully, accept the uncertainty, and have the courage to stay the course while the evidence still supports the plan.
LINKS
• Meet the Truth Tellers: paulmerriman.com/truth-tellersBack from the Baltic and 12 of your questions
Paul returns from a two-week Baltic cruise refreshed and ready to dig into the numbers. He opens with a 12-month performance review of the recommended portfolios at Avantis, DFA and Vanguard — Avantis averaged …
Shownotes
Paul returns from a two-week Baltic cruise refreshed and ready to dig into the numbers. He opens with a 12-month performance review of the recommended portfolios at Avantis, DFA and Vanguard — Avantis averaged 31.1% across the 10 equity asset classes in the Ultimate Buy and Hold, versus 27.7% at DFA and 26% at Vanguard — and explains why the non-traditional index funds keep outperforming traditional cap-weighted indexes.
Paul also revisits Ben Carlson’s look at the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which grew to $30 billion under management before falling 65% while the S&P 500 gained more than 60% — a costly lesson in performance chasing, with an estimated $7.5 billion in shareholder losses.
Then Paul answers 12 listener questions, with a special deep dive into table G1B — 56 years of S&P 500 vs. small cap value returns, one year at a time, plus every combination in 10% increments.
QUESTIONS COVERED
1. Funds that match the international and U.S. small cap value asset classes 17:18
2. Keep investments at Fidelity or move to Vanguard? 18:51
3. Is the Vanguard money market fund a good long-term emergency fund? 20:19
4. Pairing the S&P 500 with small cap value — the G1B fine-tuning table 21:46
5. Why the Four Fund worldwide portfolio uses U.S. small cap value only 31:17
6. Should geopolitical tension make you cash out? 33:57
7. Why has small cap value historically produced higher returns? 36:47
8. Can you get rich from investing? The Rule of 72 and $100 a month 41:51
9. Is the all-value worldwide portfolio better than the other strategies? (Table H2) 44:03
10. Where to find the 10 Fund portfolio allocations 48:39
11. Paul’s take on DFA’s micro cap fund (DFMC) 49:16
12. Lump sum or dollar cost average when switching funds in a Roth? 51:57LINKS
• Table H2 — Sound Investing Portfolios Comparison (Worldwide All Value)
• Table H1a — Sound Investing Portfolios Asset Allocations
• Fine-Tuning Table G1B — S&P 500 vs. Small Cap Value
• Fine-Tuning Table G1C — S&P 500 vs. SCV, 2025 Returns
• Best-in-Class ETF RecommendationsThey're Back... Talking Real Money - Investing Talk
I joined my longtime friend Tom Cock for a special edition of Talking Real Money — a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of indexing, the proposed changes to the S&P 500, and why investors should …
Shownotes
I joined my longtime friend Tom Cock for a special edition of Talking Real Money — a wide-ranging conversation about the evolution of indexing, the proposed changes to the S&P 500, and why investors should understand both the strengths and limitations of traditional index funds. I explain why firms like Dimensional Fund Advisors and Avantis Investors use a more flexible, evidence-based approach than traditional indexing, and how academic research has reshaped portfolio construction over the past several decades.
We also explore lessons from market history, including the importance of understanding major bear markets, determining appropriate risk levels, and building portfolios that align with your personal goals rather than chasing maximum returns. I share insights from the latest Dimensional Matrix Book and explain why I believe studying 100 years of market data helps investors stay disciplined during inevitable downturns.
Finally, I introduce a simple but powerful strategy for helping newborns and young children build substantial retirement wealth through small annual investments that can compound over many decades.
CHAPTERS
0:11 Special guest Paul Merriman joins Talking Real Money
0:55 Long friendship and investing partnership between Tom and Paul
1:20 S&P 500 rule changes and earlier inclusion of major IPOs like SpaceX
2:07 Historical examples of S&P 500 additions and omissions
2:35 Microsoft’s delayed entry into the S&P 500
2:56 NVIDIA replacing Enron in 2001
3:29 How index rule changes can affect future returns and volatility
4:08 Why indexing remains the preferred strategy for most investors
5:16 Traditional versus non-traditional index funds
6:37 How Avantis and Dimensional incorporate factors beyond company size
8:05 Why factor-based investing differs from traditional indexing
9:02 Problems with rigid index reconstitution schedules
10:16 Momentum, flexibility, and portfolio management advantages
11:22 Introduction to Dimensional’s annual Matrix Book
11:53 Using market history rather than forecasts to guide investing decisions
13:09 Lessons from past bubbles, crashes, and lost decades
14:20 Why Paul trusts academic research more than Wall Street forecasts
15:14 The case for small-cap value investing
15:49 Clarifying Paul’s allocation to small companies
16:53 Investing for heirs, charities, and future generations
18:10 Remembering investor panic during the 2008 financial crisis
19:18 Determining an appropriate risk level for retirement portfolios
20:43 Different investor goals: beating the market, maximizing returns, or minimizing risk
21:28 Peace of mind versus maximum growth
21:55 Helping young people build retirement wealth early
22:54 The $365-per-year retirement funding concept
24:09 Final thoughts and appreciation between Tom and PaulBen Carlson and Paul Merriman on Full Disclosure
Paul Merriman joins host Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure for a rare conversation alongside Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the new book Risk and Reward …
Shownotes
Paul Merriman joins host Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure for a rare conversation alongside Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the new book Risk and Reward: How to Handle Market Volatility and Build Long-Term Wealth. Roben called it a “truth teller tandem” — the first time these two have sat down together — and the result is an hour of warm, candid, data-grounded talk about how individual investors can actually succeed.
The conversation opens with a great question: does a century of S&P 500 history mean anything when index funds didn’t even exist for most of it? Paul explains why those long-run numbers still matter — not as a promise of the next ten years, but as a guide to the full range of what markets can do. From there, Paul and Ben trace just how far investing has come since Paul entered the business in 1966: the death of the 8.5% sales load, the arrival of IRAs and 401(k)s, fractional shares, and commission-free trading. As Ben puts it, the barriers to entry have been bulldozed, and today’s investor has a better shot at strong net returns than ever before.
But more choices bring more temptation. Paul and Ben dig into diversification as a risk-management tool — why a tilt toward small-cap value and a meaningful allocation to international stocks can pay off over a lifetime, even when the S&P 500 is dominating the headlines. They revisit the lost decade of 2000–2009, the lessons of Japan’s 1989 peak, and the hard discipline of rebalancing into the pain when an asset class is out of favor.
They also get practical about the things keeping investors up at night: inflation as one of the biggest risks most people underestimate, the real trade-offs in today’s bond market and long-duration Treasuries, and an honest look at the FIRE movement — including why meaning, longevity, and a 30- or 40-year retirement complicate the dream of retiring early. Throughout, Paul shares his own story, including why, at 82 and with more than he needs, he still holds half his portfolio in equities because of a caution he’s carried since his twenties.
Ben closes with the thought that may stay with you longest: the most important thing an investor can understand is not the market — it’s themselves. Knowing which mistake you’d regret more, and what you can truly live with, is the foundation everything else is built on.
Evidence-Based Investing, Index Funds & Staying the Course
I recently sat down with Steve Chen on his Boldin Your Money podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about evidence-based investing — and why it matters more than ever in a world of speculation, hype, and …
Shownotes
I recently sat down with Steve Chen on his Boldin Your Money podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about evidence-based investing — and why it matters more than ever in a world of speculation, hype, and constant financial noise. We covered my early days as a stockbroker in the 1960s, the psychology that trips investors up in downturns, how low-cost index funds transformed personal finance, factor investing and small-cap value, and why younger investors are being pulled toward gambling-like behavior through apps, crypto, and prediction markets. Whether you're just starting out or planning for retirement, I think you'll find it time well spent.
KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED
• The difference between investing and speculation
• Why staying the course is emotionally difficult
• Wall Street incentives and investor behavior
• The origins of index fund investing
• Factor investing and small-cap value explained
• Why diversification matters long term
• Rebalancing strategies and portfolio management
• Financial literacy and generational investing habits
• Why gambling behavior is becoming normalized
• How AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude are changing education
• The psychology behind successful long-term investorsTIMESTAMPS
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Paul Merriman's start in investing
05:20 Wall Street incentives and conflicts of interest
08:35 Why investing is harder than it looks
12:25 Investing vs speculation
15:40 Why people panic during market crashes
17:30 The psychology of staying the course
19:10 Generational wealth and financial literacy
23:40 The case for index funds
28:45 Factor investing explained
32:30 The four-fund portfolio strategy
36:00 Rebalancing and long-term returns
38:00 ChatGPT, Claude, and financial education
42:15 Market valuations and investor behavior
45:30 Building wealth intentionally
49:00 Gambling culture and modern investing
51:45 Teaching financial literacy to younger generations
54:00 Final thoughts on long-term investingRESOURCES MENTIONED
Paul Merriman Foundation: https://www.paulmerriman.com/
Try the Boldin Planner for free: https://go.boldin.com/podcasttep110Watch Video here- https://youtu.be/y_i5wrr_tfM
Paul & Chris Tackle 10 of your Investing Questions
Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative …
Shownotes
Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative portfolio analysis.
CHAPTERS
00:00 — Intro
01:11 — Funds vs. their indexes
06:04 — Which asset can I drop?
10:50 — Buy and hold for a lifetime?
16:04 — Tracking errors
20:24 — How many years to trust a strategy?
27:05 — The impact of 10% cash
28:18 — What's a "good enough" return?
31:57 — The new worldwide 4-fund portfolio
42:29 — Too old for small-cap value?
44:56 — Avantis and DFA
48:27 — AVES for emerging markets value
54:04 — OutroLINKS & FILES
Sound Investing Quilt Charts
Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Two Funds for Life Calculator
Lifetime Investment Calculator
Daryl's 4-Fund Portfolio Analysis (WW 4-Fund)
Other Fine Tuning Tables (50/50)
2FFL Fine Tuning Table — AllocationsMike Piper- Bainbridge Financial Literacy Series 2026
In Session 3 of the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Spring Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Mike Piper — CPA, Personal Financial Specialist, and the voice behind the Oblivious Investor blog …
Shownotes
In Session 3 of the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Spring Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Mike Piper — CPA, Personal Financial Specialist, and the voice behind the Oblivious Investor blog and the free Open Social Security calculator — for one of the warmest, most practical conversations of the series. Mike has a rare gift: taking the topics that intimidate most investors and making them feel obvious. Over the course of the hour, he and Paul work through the handful of decisions that genuinely shape a retirement.
Mike opens with a quietly radical idea: if you've prepared well, "more than enough" isn't the exception — it's the most likely outcome. Because we have to plan for long lifespans, poor markets, and high medical costs that usually don't all come to pass, most disciplined savers end up with leftovers. From there, he explains which dollars to spend first each year, how age and capital gains should steer whether you draw from taxable or retirement accounts, and why the step-up in basis matters more than most people realize.
The conversation turns to the human side of money, too — how to talk a couple through it when one spouse is aggressive and the other can't stand the thought of the stock market, why both positions are almost always driven by fear, and how framing the trade-offs around the people you love often brings them closer together. Mike and Paul also tackle the spendthrift-child dilemma, the case for matching a young person's Roth IRA, and why small gifts early can dwarf an inheritance received at 70.
On Social Security, Mike makes the point that most people get the risk exactly backwards: delaying benefits isn't a gamble — it's insurance against the scary scenario of living a very long time. He walks through what really happens if Congress does nothing before the trust fund shortfall around 2033 (hint: the program doesn't disappear), and the range of fixes on the table. Throughout, both men return to the same theme — simple, low-cost, broadly diversified portfolios keep beating the clever alternatives, and the Bessembinder research helps explain why.
Stick around for the closing exchange on using AI to learn from the "Truth Tellers" — and Mike's cautionary tale about a chatbot that invented an entire tax-code provision, word for word and completely convincingly, that simply does not exist.
LINKS:
Mike Piper's blog — obliviousinvestor.com
Open Social Security — opensocialsecurity.com
Mike's books on Amazon — https://bit.ly/49BQugd
Oblivious Investor — https://bit.ly/4oeIacs
We're Talking Millions! (free PDF and audio) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-books
If You Can by Bill Bernstein (free PDF) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-books
PlanVision — Mark Zoril — planvisionmn.com
The Bessembinder study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/hendrik-bessembinder-do-stocks-outperform-treasury-billsWatch the Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB2ccYRLSOI&feature=youtu.be
Automating Your Portfolio: M1 Finance vs. Fidelity Basket Portfolios
In the final episode of the 2026 Boot Camp series, Paul Merriman sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to tackle the last fork in the road every investor faces: how to and how much automation to use …
Shownotes
In the final episode of the 2026 Boot Camp series, Paul Merriman sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to tackle the last fork in the road every investor faces: how to and how much automation to use. After all the boot camp decisions — stocks versus bonds, which equity asset classes, how much fixed income, how to handle contributions and withdrawals — the final question is how much of the day-to-day management you should hand off to a tool, and which tool is right for you.
Chris walks through how M1 Finance “pies” let buy-and-hold investors put their portfolios on autopilot: automated contributions, on-the-fly rebalancing as new money comes in, fractional shares, and one-button rebalancing. He explains the pre-configured Merriman portfolios — the Ultimate Buy and Hold, Worldwide and US Four-Fund, All Value, All Small Cap Value, and the Aggressive Target Date glide path in five-year increments — and an important limitation: once you grab a pie, there’s no live link back to the source, so website updates won’t change your account.
Paul then makes the case for Fidelity’s Basket Portfolios as an alternative, especially for anyone uneasy about moving large sums to a younger company. He covers the flat $4.99-per-month fee regardless of account size, eligible account types, the TFLO short-term Treasury workaround for holding cash, and why Fidelity may fit investors already in the Fidelity ecosystem. The team compares trading windows, account minimums and how each firm counts the $10,000 threshold, and Daryl shares that M1 has grown from about $1 billion in 2020 to roughly $12.5 billion in assets under management.
The conversation closes with practical guidance on mixing and matching Sound Investing portfolios, the question everyone’s asking — “how long do I have to wait for small cap value?” — a reminder not to flail or chase recent performance, why the 10-fund Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy still stands, and a clear explanation of the move from AVUS to AVLC and where AVSC fits.
CHAPTERS
00:00 - Intro
03:10 - M1 Finance
13:45 - Fidelity Baskets
24:27 - Portfolio Combos
29:55 - When to Change Allocations
42:44 - AVLC vs. AVUS
45:15 - OutroLINKS:
Sound Investing Portfolio Pies
Bill Bernstein: 50 Years of Investing Wisdom
In this interview from the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Annual Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Bill Bernstein — neurologist, financial historian, and author of The Four Pillars of …
Shownotes
In this interview from the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Annual Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Bill Bernstein — neurologist, financial historian, and author of The Four Pillars of Investing and If You Can — for a wide-ranging conversation drawn from 50-plus years of investing experience.
Bill explains why you're only rewarded for taking risk in well-regulated markets (and why crypto doesn't qualify), how today's market echoes the late 1990s, why the "reverse glide path" makes sense the older you get, and what the Bessembinder research really tells us about the cost of trying to pick winners. Paul and Bill also debate withdrawal strategies, the case against long bonds, and whether tilted small-value investing still works once "the bozos know about it."
A masterclass in evidence-based investing from one of the most respected voices in the field.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro from Matt Longmire, Bainbridge Community Foundation
02:50 Welcoming Bill Bernstein
03:50 Why The Four Pillars of Investing belongs on every DIY investor's shelf
05:50 Risk vs. reward — and why Bitcoin doesn't qualify
08:30 How many asset classes do you really need?
11:50 Where today's market resembles the late 1990s
13:40 Are REITs still worth holding?
15:50 The case for automating everything
19:45 Why retirees need to fear sequence-of-returns risk
21:30 Paul's 5% rule vs. the 4% rule
25:30 The two-bucket theory and the reverse glide path
27:30 Prediction markets, gambling, and "being the house"
32:00 The sociological signs of a bubble
35:00 Speculation vs. gambling — gold's real return
40:00 The Bessembinder study: why 4% of stocks make most of the returns
46:00 Why rich people plan three generations ahead
49:00 Audience Q&A
58:30 Tilted index funds (DFA, Avantis) — worth it?
01:03:50 The future of Social Security
01:07:00 Closing thoughts and book recommendationsLINKS:
The Four Pillars of Investing — Bill Bernstein (2nd ed., 2023)
If You Can — Free PDF from Bill Bernstein
The Bessembinder Study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?"
Boot Camp #9 - 2 Funds for Life and Target-Date Funds
Chris and Paul explain what target-date funds are and do, and how to augment them with some small-cap value to get the broad diversification benefits of the other Sound Investing portfolios.They describe …
Shownotes
Chris and Paul explain what target-date funds are and do, and how to augment them with some small-cap value to get the broad diversification benefits of the other Sound Investing portfolios.
They describe several approaches and tools investors can use to determine what might be best for them.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro
03:03 Target-Date Funds
07:00 Glide Paths
15:17 TDF Backtesting
19:55 TDF Weaknesses
26:20 "Easy" 2FFL
34:46 "Moderate" 2FFL
37:48 "Aggressive" 2FFL
41:00 Customizer
52:15 Calculator
61:07 Books
66:00 Outro
LINKS:
Q&A With Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls: Thinking Through Your Portfolio Choices
Paul sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls for the first Q&A session in months — and this one is built around the questions readers and listeners ask most often. Chris and Daryl share what they're …
Shownotes
Paul sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls for the first Q&A session in months — and this one is built around the questions readers and listeners ask most often. Chris and Daryl share what they're working on next (Best-in-Class ETF updates, Target Date Fund work, telltale charts, risk-adjusted return analysis), Paul talks about a smarter way to use AI for the questions outside our wheelhouse, and the team works through six reader questions about portfolio design — from combining model portfolios to choosing between fund families.
If you've ever wondered whether your portfolio is "right," this conversation will help you think about it the way Chris and Daryl do.
- 8:30 — Should I combine the Worldwide Four Fund, U.S. Four Fund, and Worldwide All Value with a small cap value tilt?
- 16:00 — How do I read the Sound Investing tables to compare portfolios?
- 30:30 — Worldwide All Small Cap Value vs. the U.S. Two Fund — which is better?
- 38:15 — My Vanguard Four Fund uses VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR — am I using the right ETFs?
- 41:30 — How do Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, DFA, and Avantis compare on size and value exposure?
- 46:30 — How do I get help with Merriman portfolios when I need it?
Table B2 Table H2 Fine Tuning Tables Portfolio Configurator
You'll get the full answers, the data behind them, and Chris and Daryl's reasoning by watching or listening.
Watch the video here- https://youtu.be/BdTNOkALpuQ
2026 Best in Class ETF Portfolios
Paul and Chris introduce the new Avantis and DFA Best-in-Class fund family recommendations and talk about the shift away from evaluating and recommending à la carte choices from multiple fund providers. They …
Shownotes
Paul and Chris introduce the new Avantis and DFA Best-in-Class fund family recommendations and talk about the shift away from evaluating and recommending à la carte choices from multiple fund providers.
They emphasize that the quality and breadth of the offerings from Avantis and DFAhave reached a point where it's better and more sustainable to recommend these fund families than to continually change recommendations among funds that are increasingly close unexpected performance.
Best in Class ETF recommendations https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-recommendations
Portfolio Configurator https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/a941a5d4-0929-45ea-b22e-3bb82dc334ff/page/99wxc?s=hqmha3-AK5k
Christine Benz: Practical Retirement Planning from Morningstar's Top Expert
This special two-part session opens with Paul Merriman solo — paying tribute to Tim Ranzetta of Next Generation Personal Finance, sharing the latest numbers on state-mandated financial literacy, and walking …
Shownotes
This special two-part session opens with Paul Merriman solo — paying tribute to Tim Ranzetta of Next Generation Personal Finance, sharing the latest numbers on state-mandated financial literacy, and walking through Daryl Bahls' quilt charts to show annual earnings invested in the S&P 500, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value since 1928.Then Paul sits down with Christine Benz — Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning, and author of How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement — for a wide-ranging conversation on how to actually make a retirement portfolio last.Christine lays out her five-step plan for anyone retiring in 2030 or 2035: turbocharge savings, rethink household spending, build seven to ten years of "safer assets" for portfolio withdrawals, diversify globally, and use TIPS to protect purchasing power. She and Paul dig into how to structure fixed income (short, intermediate, TIPS), why she's cooler on REITs than she used to be, when a simple income annuity makes sense, and why alternatives rarely earn their keep.They also cover performance-chasing the S&P 500, balanced funds vs. building your own portfolio (including Paul's Wellesley/Wellington pairing for hands-off investors), how AI is starting to change the financial advice landscape, and the honest answer to "have you planned out to the day you die?" — even from a Morningstar executive.The audience Q&A covers bonds vs. T-bills, down-payment savings, the four-fund portfolio, Vanguard asset allocation for retirees, tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing, TIAA annuities, managed futures, and gold.Part of the Spring Financial Education Series hosted by the Bainbridge Community Foundation in partnership with the Merriman Financial Education Foundation.Coming up in this series: Mike Piper (April 21) and Bill Bernstein (April 28).🔗 LINKS & RESOURCES:📖 How to Retire — Christine Benz🎙️ The Long View Podcast🌐 https://www.morningstar.com/people/christine-benz📘 https://www.ngpf.org🌐 https://paulmerriman.comTIMESTAMPS:📚 PART 1 — Paul Merriman Solo0:00–Welcome from Matt Longmire2:55–Paul Merriman intro3:50–Tim Ranzetta & NGPF7:00–Financial literacy stats9:30–Why NGPF is free10:30–Ben Carlson & oil shocks13:50–Risk and Reward preview14:40–Quilt charts explained17:00–$100 since 192820:00–Quintile rankings22:30–Four-fund consistency24:00–Volatility discussion25:30–Best/worst decades🎙️ PART 2 — Christine Benz Interview27:00–Christine joins29:00–Retirement mindset31:00–Planning for 2030/203532:30–Boosting savings33:30–Lifestyle adjustments35:00–7–10 years safer assets38:00–Bond strategy40:00–Risk tiers (cash → bonds)42:00–Equity allocation44:30–TIPS importance48:00–Buy-and-hold vs timing50:00–Handling macro fears52:30–Top risks54:00–Annuities overview56:00–SPIAs & DIAs58:30–Income psychology1:02:00–More resources1:04:00–Alternatives critique1:07:30–401(k) concerns1:10:00–Investor gap1:12:00–Christine’s planQ&A:1:15:00–Bonds vs T-bills1:20:00–$95k down payment1:22:00–Four-fund portfolios1:25:00–FXAIX vs VOO1:26:00–Model portfolios1:29:00–Balanced funds1:33:00–Tax-managed funds1:34:00–Active vs passive1:39:00–Bond ETFs1:41:00–TIAA annuities1:42:30–Withdrawal strategy1:44:00–AI investing1:46:00–Future of advice1:50:00–Gold & alternatives1:52:00–Closing thoughts1:53:00–Next episode
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