The Bitcoin Layer
- Episodes
- 320
- Released
- several times a week
- Latest episode
- Nov 12, 2026
About the podcast
The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!
Episodes 320
When Will Bitcoin Finally Recover?
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Is Setting Up To Beat The Nasdaq
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, as bitcoin tests its 200 day moving average. Jamie explains why he believes bitcoin broke out of its bear market in August …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, as bitcoin tests its 200 day moving average. Jamie explains why he believes bitcoin broke out of its bear market in August, why that turn came well before the low in global liquidity, and the levels he is watching below, including an air gap between $75,000 and $64,000. He walks through the margin debt signal that flashed before the tops in 2000, 2007, and 2021, why the degrossing in tech is one of the largest on record, and why correlations go to one if a risk off event hits. They close on bitcoin versus the Nasdaq. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Why Stocks Really Crashed Today
In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He shows the Nasdaq slicing through its 200 day moving average and a trend line stretching back to 2022, and why the S&P losing 7630 and its own four year line matters. Nik argues that credit cycles are mostly apolitical and that this has been building for weeks, points to the OpenAI raise getting cut and Anthropic’s IPO odds falling, and explains what a 55 basis point drop in treasury yields is telling him. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Fed Will Have To Print Bigger This Time
In this episode, Nik lays out three money market metrics he watches as a former repo and treasury bill trader, and why they suggest the Fed may be closer to another round of QE than anyone wants to admit. He …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik lays out three money market metrics he watches as a former repo and treasury bill trader, and why they suggest the Fed may be closer to another round of QE than anyone wants to admit. He starts with SOFR creeping back above IORB, a spread now at its widest since tax day, and the month end and year end dates he is watching next. He then covers why more than $7 trillion in T-bills has to be funded by a cash market that cannot grow to meet it, and why bank reserves at 9% of GDP sit near the levels that preceded the 2019 repo crisis. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Prediction Markets Are A Symptom Of Debasement
In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why prediction markets aren’t the trustless systems people assume, how the oracle problem means someone still has to decide the outcome, and why the assumption that markets always reveal truth breaks down when someone has reason to lose money on purpose. He and Nik also cover why the Genius Act creates structural demand for treasuries, how stablecoins extend dollar access across the global south, and Nik’s own realization while writing his stablecoins as statecraft paper. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Held Up Through A $6 Billion Hack
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance hack, in which $6.3 billion was taken from the exchange’s hot wallet. He explains why a 5% drawdown is far milder than he would have guessed for …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance hack, in which $6.3 billion was taken from the exchange’s hot wallet. He explains why a 5% drawdown is far milder than he would have guessed for news of that size, why this is different from the FTX collapse, and how the hacker used DeFi collateral to move stablecoins before issuers could freeze them. Nik then turns to the levels he is watching below $82,700, why gold losing its trend line opens up $3,400, and why a bearish divergence in the Nasdaq suggests more downside. He closes on month end funding and why the calendar matters here. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Wall Street Has No Idea What the Fed Is Doing Anymore
In this episode, Nik covers the Fed’s decision to hold and the reaction that surprised him more than the decision itself: Bloomberg’s anchors in full meltdown over how Kevin Warsh is communicating. He walks …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers the Fed’s decision to hold and the reaction that surprised him more than the decision itself: Bloomberg’s anchors in full meltdown over how Kevin Warsh is communicating. He walks through their three complaints, the dissents, Warsh declining to explain why the Fed didn’t hike, and the suggestion that Williams and Jefferson are really setting policy. Nik explains why he thinks the hold was justified given how much conditions tightened after September, and why Warsh believes higher rates will slow the AI buildout. He closes on bitcoin’s four price drivers and why a steepening yield curve could relieve some pressure. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.It’s Death Either Way For Japan
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peruvian Bull, also known as Roberto Rios, author of the Dollar Endgame, for a deep look at Japan. They trace the story from the 1980s bubble and the Plaza Accord through the lost …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peruvian Bull, also known as Roberto Rios, author of the Dollar Endgame, for a deep look at Japan. They trace the story from the 1980s bubble and the Plaza Accord through the lost decades, the move to zero rates, and the yield curve control era that made the yen the world’s funding currency. Roberto explains how the carry trade grew into something the Bank of Japan can no longer tame, why recent interventions cost $91 billion and included the US Treasury and Federal Reserve for the first time since 1998, and why Japan now has to choose between letting the currency fall or letting JGB yields rip. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Credit Cycle Is Turning On Stocks
In this episode, Nik covers three funding headlines that landed within days of each other: Anthropic filing for an IPO, SpaceX going to the bond market for $40 billion, and Meta raising $95 billion in equity …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers three funding headlines that landed within days of each other: Anthropic filing for an IPO, SpaceX going to the bond market for $40 billion, and Meta raising $95 billion in equity. He explains why so much issuance at once signals the funding window is narrowing, why a turning credit cycle starves everything on the fringe, and why stock valuations and earnings growth are already rolling over. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law | Santostasi & Perrenod
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, joining from Lugano, to explain the bitcoin power law. Giovanni walks through why …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, joining from Lugano, to explain the bitcoin power law. Giovanni walks through why bitcoin’s price plotted against time produces a straight line on a log log chart, and why an R squared of 0.97 means only 3% of the price history falls outside it. Stephen explains the two power laws underneath it, adoption growing as the cube of time, the same rate as the internet and as viruses, and value growing with the square of users. They also cover their peer reviewed paper and why the math suggests bitcoin is empirically a peer to peer network. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Most Important Thing About This Debt Crisis with Matt Dines
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from Oracle and CoreWeave to JetBlue bonds trading at 61 cents on the dollar, and explains why record high yield deals from SoftBank and Paramount Skydance mean companies are issuing with a gun to their head rather than by choice. He argues that a QE response would be the wrong prescription, because the disease is tight resource markets rather than a purely financial problem. Nik and Matt close on what a default wave would mean for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It
In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals …
Show notes
In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin
In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He also explains why bitcoin trading below the bottom band of its power law has historically been a good place to accumulate. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years
In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost money, with median returns climbing above 100x at ten years. He closes on why he expects forward returns in the 30s rather than the 60s. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the twos tens curve is the chart he watches most closely, and why French bond spreads are back at 2011 levels. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold
In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the dollar, the Thucydides trap and the US China breakup behind the global system rupture, why credit spreads explain the stock market, and why he is watching for a European central bank print. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis
In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be the opening the digital euro needed. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Europe Is About To Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests …
Show notes
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the yield curve, and introduces the new crossover analysis combining TBL liquidity with Johan Bergman's state grid to gauge how much confidence a given signal deserves. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)
In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why …
Show notes
In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull institutional allocations higher over time, why the Fed began hiking this month into rising yields worldwide, and why he expects a massive money creation event out of Europe before the United States. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Central Banks Have Lost Control
In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks have lost control, walking through the Bank of England's reversal on gilt sales and why moving that debt to the Treasury does not make it disappear. He covers why the UK housing market has gone no bid as short-term mortgages reset, and why the Bank of England will eventually have to hike to defend the pound. Nik and James also discuss bitcoin's rally and why AI may be the most deflationary force either has seen. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Bear Market Is Over
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minute candles …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minute candles to show the short squeeze that took price up more than $1,500 in about 100 seconds, and explains why that resistance level should now act as support. Nik also covers why the four-year cycle theory keeps getting buried, how financialization has compressed bitcoin's volatility, and the breakout on the bitcoin versus gold ratio. He closes on Johan Bergman's state grid, where trend is turning up while valuation is still cheap. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare. Nik opens with the charts: almost $4 trillion of the just over $5 trillion the …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare. Nik opens with the charts: almost $4 trillion of the just over $5 trillion the government collects in tax revenue now goes to Medicare, Social Security, and other health spending. Stu and Jon explain how the system got here, why the Medicare trust fund is projected to run out in 2032, and why commercial insurance pays far more than Medicare for identical care. They also cover the solutions they see emerging, from direct primary care and cash pricing to holding bitcoin in a health savings account. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.What Happens If The Fed Hikes Tomorrow
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the global bond meltdown and what happens to Liquidity if the Fed hikes rates. He starts with bitcoin losing the trend line he had been tracking and slipping from $80,000 …
Show notes
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the global bond meltdown and what happens to Liquidity if the Fed hikes rates. He starts with bitcoin losing the trend line he had been tracking and slipping from $80,000 back to $76,000, then turns to crude oil above $106 a barrel and why the energy shock, including declining refinery capacity and diesel prices, is repricing inflation expectations worldwide. Nik explains why yields are spiking in the United Kingdom, France, and Japan, why he thinks a crisis response is more likely to come from Europe than the United States, and why a strengthening dollar challenges Europe in what he calls the global capital war. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Bond Meltdown Ends In A Global Money Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print. He walks through the global balance sheet, $600 …
Show notes
In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print. He walks through the global balance sheet, $600 trillion in real assets, $600 trillion in financialized assets, and $600 trillion of banking balance sheet, set against $350 trillion of debt and only $120 trillion of global GDP, and why that math makes repayment in today's dollars impossible. Nik covers why he expects the print in the United States to come from commercial bank lending rather than Fed QE, why the ECB and the Bank of England will have to print at the policy level, and what all of it means for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.The Most Important Inflation Report Of The Year
In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why treasury bills lead the Fed and have been pricing hikes since May, how Kevin Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing into every meeting, and why core CPI running at 0.2% a month makes an immediate hike unlikely while a 0.4% print would change everything. Nik also lays out why he believes the Fed will hold, what a hiking cycle would do to liquidity, and the three sources he recommends for understanding the global balance sheet. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.One Level Decides Bitcoin’s Bull Market
In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively than at any point since the election, and why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will instead find a way to force front-end rates lower, given an interest burden approaching a quarter of tax revenue. Nik also covers the 4.81% level on the ten-year, why a flattening yield curve signals demand for safe assets rather than a debt spiral, why Europe worries him more than the United States, and the level bitcoin has to close above. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Something Just Broke the Bond Market
In this episode, Nik covers the chaos in global government bond markets, with yields rising from the United States to Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. He explains what actually drives bond …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik covers the chaos in global government bond markets, with yields rising from the United States to Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. He explains what actually drives bond yields, why inflation is structurally higher in 2026 than in the last fifteen years, and why Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the global savings glut is reversing into an investment surge. Nik walks through how the AI buildout is pulling capital out of treasuries, why NVIDIA chips are becoming bond collateral, and which countries actually have to worry. He closes with a tour of TBL Pulse and why Johan Bergman's state grid shows bitcoin leaving the capitulation zone. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Bitcoin Just Failed Three Times
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate …
Show notes
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call TBL got wrong in 2022, and covers bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 this week. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.You've Been Drinking Fiat Wine (And You Feel It) with Ben Justman
In this episode, Nik welcomes Ben Justman, founder of Peony Lane Wine in Paonia, Colorado, the highest wine region in North America. Ben explains how he learned winemaking on his father's farm, why high …
Show notes
In this episode, Nik welcomes Ben Justman, founder of Peony Lane Wine in Paonia, Colorado, the highest wine region in North America. Ben explains how he learned winemaking on his father's farm, why high elevation and dry farming shape his Pinot Noir, and why the 73 ingredients American winemakers can add without putting them on a label led Nik to call it fiat wine. Ben shares that 30 to 50% of his customers pay in bitcoin. Nik covers why the Treasury buybacks are not material, why Bessent has said the United States needs to move away from reserve currency status, and why he now calls him the Secretary of Financial War. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Global Macro Update: The Real Reason Bitcoin Just Ripped
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the financial war he sees playing out across treasuries and currencies, and why bitcoin popped above $67,000 on the back of it. He walks through the trend lines he is …
Show notes
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the financial war he sees playing out across treasuries and currencies, and why bitcoin popped above $67,000 on the back of it. He walks through the trend lines he is watching, and why the zone between $70,000 and $82,000 is the work bitcoin has to do before a technical bull market emerges. Nik explains why he calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the Secretary of Volatility, where he thinks Bessent's lines in the sand sit on the dollar and the ten-year yield, and how the new buyback program functions as a form of yield curve control. He also covers why rates are rising naturally in an AI boom. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
These are the latest 40 of 320 episodes. You’ll find older episodes in the podcast’s feed.
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